MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

4 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U18) Bears Still Need Close Below 97.900 

*RES 4: 98.030 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 98.015 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: 97.974 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 97.965 - 2018 High July 2

*PRICE: 97.940 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.900 - Low June 29 

*SUP 2: 97.864 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 97.835 - High June 14 now support 

*SUP 4: 97.806 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 & 8mth highs is a

concern for bulls with daily momentum divergence noted, O/B studies in general

and the Bollinger top lurking just above. Bears look for a close below 97.900 to

ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 97.795-864 where key DMAs are

clustered. Bulls need a close above 97.965 to reconfirm focus on 98.015-030

where 100 & 200-WMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U18) 97.940 Resistance Remains Key 

*RES 4: 97.4575 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: 97.4400 - 2018 High Apr 3

*RES 2: 97.4297 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 97.4200 - High July 2

*PRICE: 97.3600 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.3350 - Low June 26 & 27

*SUP 2: 97.3077 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 97.2550 - Hourly support June 14

*SUP 4: 97.2379 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs is a concern for bulls given daily

studies correcting from O/B, daily momentum divergence and Bollinger tops

lingering above. Bulls need a close above 97.4400 to confirm a break of the

100-WMA (97.3761) and initially target 97.5000-5200. Bears look for a close

below 97.3350 to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to shift focus back

to 97.1360-1725.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-16 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 121-12  Monthly High June

*RES 3: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 1: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*PRICE: 120-11+ @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 120-06  Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 4: 119-20+ Low June 22

*COMMENTARY: The 120-16 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a

close above to confirm focus on 121-03/12. The Bollinger top (120-14+) and

modestly O/B studies remain key concerns for bulls. Initial support is noted at

120-06 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below

119-26+ to shift initial focus back to 119-13+ where the 55-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Failures, Looking Offered

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.833 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on the 2.821 support with overall

bearish focus currently on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The

Bollinger base (2.818) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears.

Bulls continue now look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above

2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     JGB TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 150.89

*RES 4: 151.19 - Monthly High Nov 22

*RES 3: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2

*RES 2: 151.13 - Monthly High May 30

*RES 1: 151.02 - Hourly resistance May 30

*PRICE: 150.94 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 150.89 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 2: 150.80 - Low June 29 

*SUP 3: 150.71 - Low June 15 

*SUP 4: 150.60 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Narrow sideways trading came to an end Monday with fresh 4 week

highs seeing focus now on 151.02-19 where 2018 & monthly highs are situated.

Daily studies looking to correct from modestly O/B and the lack of topside

follow through Monday are seen as concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears now

need a close below 150.89 to signal a false break higher and return focus to

150.71-80.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]