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MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis
5 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U18) Bears Still Need Close Below 97.900
*RES 4: 98.015 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 3: 97.986 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 97.965 - 2018 High July 2
*RES 1: 97.950 - High July 4
*PRICE: 97.930 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.900 - Low June 29
*SUP 2: 97.865 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.835 - High June 14 now support
*SUP 4: 97.810 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 & 8mth highs is a
concern for bulls with daily momentum divergence noted, O/B studies in general
and the Bollinger top lurking just above. Bears look for a close below 97.900 to
ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 97.795-865 where key DMAs are
clustered. Bulls need a close above 97.965 to reconfirm focus on 98.015-031
where 100 & 200-WMAs are noted.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U18) 97.4400 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 97.4575 - Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 97.4400 - 2018 High Apr 3
*RES 2: 97.4327 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 97.4200 - High July 2
*PRICE: 97.3600 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.3350 - Low June 26 & 27
*SUP 2: 97.3146 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.2550 - Hourly support June 14
*SUP 4: 97.2410 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs is a concern for bulls given daily
studies correcting from O/B, daily momentum divergence and Bollinger tops
lingering above. Bulls need a close above 97.4400 to confirm a break of the
100-WMA (97.3760) and initially target 97.5000-5200. Bears look for a close
below 97.3350 to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to shift focus back
to 97.1360-1725.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-16 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 121-03 High May 30
*RES 3: 120-24 Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 2: 120-16 Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 1: 120-12+ Falling Tl Off May high
*PRICE: 120-07+ @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 120-06 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: 119-30 Low July 3
*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26
*SUP 4: 119-20+ Low June 22
*COMMENTARY: The 120-16 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a
close above to confirm focus on 121-03/12. The Bollinger top (120-15+) and
modestly O/B studies remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through.
Initial support is noted at 120-06 with bears needing a close below to ease
bullish pressure and below 119-26+ to shift initial focus back to 119-13+ where
the 55-DMA is located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21
*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26
*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3
*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.833 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on the 2.821 support with overall
bearish focus currently on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The
Bollinger base (2.819) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears.
Bulls continue now look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above
2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050
resistance region.
JGB TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 150.89
*RES 4: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2
*RES 3: 151.13 - Monthly High May 30
*RES 2: 151.02 - Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 1: 150.98 - High July 3
*PRICE: 150.94 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 150.89 - High June 25 now support
*SUP 2: 150.80 - Low June 29
*SUP 3: 150.71 - Low June 15
*SUP 4: 150.60 - Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Narrow sideways trading came to an end Monday with fresh 4 week
highs seeing focus now on 151.02-19 where 2018 & monthly highs are situated.
Daily studies looking to correct from modestly O/B and the lack of topside
follow through Monday are seen as concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears now
need a close below 150.89 to signal a false break higher and return focus to
150.71-80.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.