MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

9 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U18) Bears Still Need Close Below 97.900 

*RES 4: 98.015 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: 97.985 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 97.965 - 2018 High July 2 

*RES 1: 97.950 - High July 4

*PRICE: 97.930 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.900 - Low June 29 

*SUP 2: 97.866 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 97.835 - High June 14 now support 

*SUP 4: 97.817 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 & 8mth highs is a

concern for bulls with daily momentum divergence noted, O/B studies in general

and the Bollinger top lurking just above. Bears look for a close below 97.900 to

ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 97.795-835 where 55 & 100 DMAs are

situated. Bulls need a close above 97.965 to reconfirm focus on 98.015-031 where

100 & 200-WMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U18) 97.4400 Resistance Remains Key 

*RES 4: 97.4608 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: 97.4400 - 2018 High Apr 3

*RES 2: 97.4307 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 97.4200 - High July 2

*PRICE: 97.4000 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.3550 - Low July 6

*SUP 2: 97.3350 - Low June 26 & 27

*SUP 3: 97.3325 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 97.2900 - Low June 18

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs is a concern for bulls given daily

studies correcting from O/B, daily momentum divergence and Bollinger tops

lingering above. Bulls need a close above 97.4400 to confirm a break of the

100-WMA (97.3756) and initially target 97.5000-5200. Bears look for a close

below 97.3350 to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA (97.2492) to shift

focus back to 97.1480-1725.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 120-03

*RES 4: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 3: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 2: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 1: 120-17+ Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 120-11 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 120-06+ Low July 6

*SUP 2: 120-03  Low July 5

*SUP 3: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 4: 119-26+ Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 120-16 resistance took its toll with a spike higher

Friday only to have follow through impeded by the Bollinger band top. Modestly

O/B studies looking to correct are an issue. Bears now look for a close below

120-03 to ease bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA (119-22+) to shift initial

focus back to 119-13+ where the 55-DMA is found. While 120-03 supports bulls now

focus on 121-03/12.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 3: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 2: 2.866 - High July 5 

*RES 1: 2.849 - High July 6

*PRICE: 2.838 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted. The Bollinger base (2.805) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern

for bears and limit follow through. Bulls continue now look for a close above

2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 &

100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     JGB TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 150.89

*RES 4: 151.19 - Monthly High Nov 22

*RES 3: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2

*RES 2: 151.13 - Monthly High May 30

*RES 1: 151.02 - Hourly resistance May 30

*PRICE: 150.96 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 150.89 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 2: 150.80 - Low June 29 

*SUP 3: 150.71 - Low June 15 

*SUP 4: 150.60 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Narrow sideways trading came to an end Monday with fresh 4 week

highs Thursday reinforcing focus on 151.02-19 where 2018 & monthly highs are

situated. Daily studies looking to correct from modestly O/B and the lack of

topside follow through remain concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears still

need a close below 150.89 to signal a false break higher and return initial

focus to 150.71-80.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]