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17 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U18) 97.965 Resistance Remains Key 
*RES 4: 98.015 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*RES 3: 97.965 - 2018 High July 2 
*RES 2: 97.964 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 97.950 - High July 4
*PRICE: 97.915 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.912 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: 97.891 - Low June 29 
*SUP 3: 97.869 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: 97.838 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on recent 2018 & 8mth highs was
a concern for bulls with daily momentum divergence noted in past weeks, O/B
studies in general and the Bollinger top lurking just above. Bears look for a
close below 97.891 to confirm immediate focus on 97.835-869 where 55, 100 &
200-DMAs are noted. Bulls need a close above 97.965 to return focus to
98.017-038 where 100 & 200-WMAs are noted.
     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U18) Below 100-DMA To Target LT Rising TL 
*RES 4: 97.4400 - 2018 High Apr 3
*RES 3: 97.4269 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 97.4200 - High July 2
*RES 1: 97.4000 - High July 9
*PRICE: 97.3350 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.3105 - Daily Bull channel base off May Low
*SUP 2: 97.2900 - Low June 18
*SUP 3: 97.2717 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: 97.2646 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs is a concern for bulls given daily
studies correcting from O/B, daily momentum divergence and Bollinger tops
lingering above. Bulls need a close above 97.4400 to confirm a break of the
100-WMA (97.3607) and initially target 97.5000-5200. The 100-DMA is key support
this week. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to shift focus back to
97.1480-1725 where the LT rising TL off 2008 lows is located.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-13/20 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 3: 120-20  High July 6
*RES 2: 120-18+ Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 120-13  Hourly resistance June 12
*PRICE: 120-06 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 120-00  Lows July 10 & 16
*SUP 2: 119-30  Low July 3
*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26
*SUP 4: 119-17+ 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the
21-DMA (120-01+). Bears need a close below 119-26+ to confirm traction below the
21-DMA and pressure 119-13+/17+ where the 55-DMA is found. The 120-13/20
resistance region remains key. Bulls continue to look for a close above 120-13
to gain breathing room and above 120-20 to confirm focus on the key 121-03/12
region.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 
*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 
*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 
*RES 1: 2.877 - High July 16
*PRICE: 2.856 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.823 - Low July 16 
*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 
*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 
*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are
noted with a close below 2.807 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base
(2.806) remains key concern for bears and limits follow through. Bulls continue
to look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to
confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance
region.
     JGB TECHS: (U18) 21-DMA Now Supporting
*RES 4: 151.19 - Monthly High Nov 22
*RES 3: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2
*RES 2: 151.13 - Monthly High May 30
*RES 1: 151.02 - Hourly resistance May 30
*PRICE: 150.91 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 150.88 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: 150.80 - Low June 29 
*SUP 3: 150.71 - Low June 15 
*SUP 4: 150.60 - Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to take out the 151.02 resistance needed
to add support to the case for a test of the 151.13-19 resistance region. Daily
studies correcting from modestly O/B weighed in past weeks. Bears now need a
close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 150.80 to shift initial
focus to 150.71-74 where the 200-DMA is situated. Overall below 150.71 hints at
a move back to 150.39.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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