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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak

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Still Vulnerable

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Bullish Price Sequence

27 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U18) Stalling Ahead OF 21-DMA 
*RES 4: 97.965 - 2018 High July 2 
*RES 3: 97.950 - High July 4 
*RES 2: 97.906 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 97.900 - High July 26
*PRICE: 97.885 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.850 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: 97.820 - Low July 24 
*SUP 3: 97.795 - High June 13 now support 
*SUP 4: 97.755 - Low June 11
*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 100-DMA to start the new week has so far
failed to result in a close below. Bears now look for a close below 97.820 to
add weight to the case for a move back to 97.675 lows with below 99.795 needed
to confirm the shift in focus. Wednesday's rally lacked follow through with
bulls now needing a close above the 21-DMA to return focus to 97.950-965 where
2018 highs are situated.
     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U18) Below 97.2350 To Pressure LT Bull Channel Base 
*RES 4: 97.4200 - High July 2
*RES 3: 97.4000 - High July 9
*RES 2: 97.3850 - Repeated daily highs July
*RES 1: 97.3450 - High July 26
*PRICE: 97.3150 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.2600 - Low July 24
*SUP 2: 97.2350 - High June 11 now support
*SUP 3: 97.1725 - Low June 12
*SUP 4: 97.1687 - LT Weekly bull channel base off 2008 Low
*COMMENTARY: Losses to start the new week resulted in closes below the bull
channel base off May lows and pressure on key DMAs. Bears now look for a close
below 97.2600 to hint at a move back to 97.0450-1687 where the LT bull channel
base is noted, with below 97.2350 to add weight to the case. Bulls now need a
close above 97.3450 to gain breathing room and above 97.3850 to return focus to
97.4000-4400.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Now Need Close Below 118-29+
*RES 4: 119-30  Hourly support July 23 now resistance
*RES 3: 119-26+ Alternating Daily support/resistance
*RES 2: 119-22+ High July 25
*RES 1: 119-18+ High July 26
*PRICE: 119-10 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 119-06  Low June 14
*SUP 2: 118-29+ Monthly Low June 13
*SUP 3: 118-19  High May 22 now support
*SUP 4: 118-09  Low May 21
*COMMENTARY: Resistance layers building adds to bearish confidence as does
topside hesitation around the 55 (119-20+) & 100 (119-24+) DMAs. Bears currently
focus on 118-29+/119-06. Bears now look for a close below 118-29+ to add weight
to the case for a test of May lows (117-30). Bulls now need a close above 119-30
to shift focus back to the key 120-13+/20 resistance region.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 3.014-084
*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 
*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 2: 3.014 - High May 24 
*RES 1: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13
*PRICE: 2.982 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.971 - Hourly resistance July 26 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.947 - Low July 26 
*SUP 3: 2.923 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce from
ahead of this level Wednesday reconfirming bullish focus on 3.014-084. Bulls
need a close above 3.084 to confirm initial focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs
are noted. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and
below 2.880 to shift initial focus back to 2.807.
     JGB TECHS: (U18) Flirting With 200-DMA
*RES 4: 150.92 - Low July 20 now resistance
*RES 3: 150.85 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 150.83 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 150.79 - High July 25
*PRICE: 150.56 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 150.51 - Low July 26 
*SUP 2: 150.45 - Hourly support July 24 
*SUP 3: 150.36 - High Feb 1 now support 
*SUP 4: 150.09 - 2018 Low Feb 2
*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA (150.75) has left the
contract looking offered and immediate focus back on the 150.36-51 support
region. Bears continue to look for a close below 150.36 to confirm immediate
focus on tests of 2018 lows. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to
shift initial focus back to 150.92-151.02.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]