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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
8 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Look for Close Below $0.7838
*RES 4: $0.8044 - High Aug 1
*RES 3: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*RES 1: $0.7979 - High Aug 4
*PRICE: $0.7910 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7891 - Low Aug 4
*SUP 2: $0.7884 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21
*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and relatively bearish
closes is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B.
Pressure on $0.7934 took its toll last week with bears focused on $0.7838-84
where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7998 to
shift focus initial focus back to $0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are located. A
close below the 21-DMA is needed to add weight to the bearish case.
KIWI TECHS: $0.7334 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $0.7458 - High July 21, Hourly resistance Aug 2
*RES 3: $0.7419 - Hourly resistance Aug 4
*RES 2: $0.7391 - Low July 21 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7377 - Hourly resistance Aug 7
*PRICE: $0.7358 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7334 - Low July 20
*SUP 2: $0.7276 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low July 18
*SUP 4: $0.7203 - Monthly Low July 11
*COMMENTARY: The break and close below the daily bull channel base ($0.7380) and
21-DMA ($0.7396) adds weight to the bearish case that is now focused on tests of
the 55-DMA. Overall below $0.7203 is needed to confirm focus on $0.7115-33 where
100 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bulls now need a close above $0.7391 to gain
breathing room and above $0.7458 to shift focus back to $0.7524-58.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Focus Back On NZ$1.0845-1.0935
*RES 4: NZ$1.0882 - Low May 1 now resistance
*RES 3: NZ$1.0845 - Monthly High July 20
*RES 2: NZ$1.0819 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: NZ$1.0758 - High Aug 7
*PRICE: NZ$1.0750 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0735 - Hourly support Aug 7
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0665 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0654 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0650 - Low Aug 2
*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 100-DMA bears failed to manage the close
below the daily bull channel base needed to shift immediate focus to
NZ$1.0593-1.0613 where the 200-DMA is located. The bounce sees bulls gain
control and return focus to tests of NZ$1.0844-1.0935 where monthly highs are
situated. Initial support is noted at NZ$1.0735 with bears needing a close below
to ease immediate bullish pressure. Daily studies are well placed for gains.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: Y89.41 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 3: Y88.81 - High July 28
*RES 2: Y88.37 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*RES 1: Y88.05 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: Y87.64 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: Y87.48 - Hourly support Aug 4
*SUP 2: Y87.24 - High Mar 20 now support
*SUP 3: Y86.81 - Low July 13
*SUP 4: Y86.59 - Low July 10
*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA Thursday added weight to the bearish case
with immediate pressure on Y87.24. Bears look for a close below to initially
target Y86.59 and then Y85.60-69 where the 55-DMA is located. Layers of
resistance are building and weighing. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA
to gain breathing room and above Y88.81 To shift initial focus back to 2017
highs (Y89.41).
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bear Channel Top Capping
*RES 4: A$1.5075 - High July 6
*RES 3: A$1.5033 - High July 11
*RES 2: A$1.4952 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: A$1.4925 - High Aug 7
*PRICE: A$1.4906 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.4883 - Hourly support Aug 7
*SUP 2: A$1.4818 - Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 3: A$1.4762 - 21-DMA, Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: A$1.4680 - Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: The bear channel top confirmed significance having capped last
week's gains. The 21-DMA remains key support with bears needing a close below to
confirm a break of the bull channel base and shift focus back to A$1.4565-1.4680
where the 100-DMA (A$1.4650) is located. Overall bears need a close below
A$1.4570 to confirm focus on the 200-DMA (A$1.4413). While the 21-DMA supports
bulls remain focused on A$1.5033-1.5109 where monthly highs are situated.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.061Support Key Today
*RES 4: 94.210 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27
*RES 2: 93.774 - High Aug 4
*RES 1: 93.541 - High Aug 7
*PRICE: 93.443 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 93.302 - Low Aug 7
*SUP 2: 93.061 - Hourly support Aug 4a
*SUP 3: 92.679 - Low Aug 3
*SUP 4: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2
*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with hesitation ahead of
the recent 2017 lows & 200-WMA (92.398) less than ideal for bears. Immediate
bearish pressure has been eased with bulls now needing a close above 94.465 to
confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to 95.167-866 where the
55-DMA is noted. Support layers are accumulating with bears looking for a close
below 93.061 to shift pressure back to 2017 lows.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2
*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2
*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now support
*RES 1: $1.1818 Hourly support Aug 2 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1794 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1768 Hourly support Aug 7
*SUP 2: $1.1723 Low July 31
*SUP 3: $1.1671 Low July 28
*SUP 4: $1.1648 Low July 27
*COMMENTARY: Failure to break the recent 2017 high combined with daily studies
looking to correct from O/B have taken their toll with a sell-off Friday that
eased bullish pressure and hints at a move back to $1.1583-1.1648 where the
21-DMA ($1.1639) is located. Bears need a close below $1.1723 to add weight to
their case. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above $1.1861
to return focus to 2017 highs.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus On Y111.39-112.41 This Week
*RES 4: Y111.70 21-DMA
*RES 3: Y111.51 55-DMA
*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27, 100-DMA
*RES 1: Y111.05 High Aug 4
*PRICE: Y110.74 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.52 Hourly resistance Aug 3 now support
*SUP 2: Y110.23 Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support
*SUP 3: Y110.00 Hourly support Aug 4
*SUP 4: Y109.84 Low Aug 3
*COMMENTARY: A double daily bottom around Y109.84 and support ahead of the
55-WMA (Y109.80) combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/S
provided the catalyst for a rally that eased bearish pressure Friday and sees
focus on Y111.39-112.41. Bulls need a close above Y112.41 to hint at a shift
higher in focus with above Y112.87 to confirm. Bears need a close below Y110.23
to ease bullish pressure and below Y110.00 to shift focus back to Y108.15-69.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Hesitation Taking Its Toll
*RES 4: $1274.0 - High Aug 1
*RES 3: $1267.2 - Hourly support Aug 3 & 4 now resistance
*RES 2: $1264.4 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: $1260.0 - High Aug 8
*PRICE: $1257.7 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1255.7 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: $1253.8 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: $1252.2 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $1247.2 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from O/B and hesitation ahead of
the key $1280.8 resistance has taken its toll with a sell-off and bearish close
Friday that sees pressure on layers of support $1243.8-1255.7. Bears need a
close below $1243.8 to confirm a break of key supports and to see immediate
focus return to the 200-DMA ($1229.4). Bulls need a close above $1264.4 to gain
breathing room and above $1280.8 to target 2017 highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.