MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

31 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

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AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On Channel Base

*RES 4: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*RES 2: $0.7720 - Low Oct 11 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7693 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7687 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7650 - Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7566 - Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7564 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears dominated last week with the close below the 200-DMA seeing

focus shift to $0.7513-66 where the daily bear channel base is noted. The 55-WMA

comes in at $0.7632 and may slow the move. Overall bears look for a close below

$0.7312 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above

$0.7720 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7775 to pressure the

$0.7807-0.7909 region where key DMAs and channel top are situated.

KIWI TECHS: Close Above $0.6912 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $0.7056 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 3: $0.7007 - Hourly resistance Oct 20 

*RES 2: $0.6940 - Hourly resistance Oct 24 

*RES 1: $0.6912 - High Oct 25

*PRICE: $0.6876 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6834 - Low Oct 30

*SUP 2: $0.6816 - 2017 Low May 11 & Oct 27

*SUP 3: $0.6667 - Low Mar 28 2016

*SUP 4: $0.6543 - Low Feb 16 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears take additional comfort last week in the weekly close below

the LT bull channel base ($0.6974) and now look for a close below 2017 lows to

shift immediate focus to $0.6667 and overall focus to tests of 2016 lows

($0.6346). O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base ($0.6820) are key concerns

for bears. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing

a close above $0.6912 to ease immediate bearish pressure.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.1092

*RES 4: NZ$1.1347 - Monthly High Sept 17 2015

*RES 3: NZ$1.1328 - 2016 High Mar 23

*RES 2: NZ$1.1291 - 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 1: NZ$1.1240 - High Oct 26

*PRICE: NZ$1.1177 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.1135 - Low Oct 30

*SUP 2: NZ$1.1092 - High Sept 15 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.1050 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.1025 - Previous key resistance now support

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grew with last Tuesday's rally but the Bollinger

top (NZ$1.1294) remains a concern for bulls recently limiting follow through. In

saying that, bears now need a close below NZ$1.1135 to gain breathing room and

below NZ$1.1092 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0975-1.1050 where key DMAs and the

bull channel base are noted. While NZ$1.1135 supports bulls focus on

NZ$1.1328-1.1438 where 2015 highs and the bull channel top are situated.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Gaining Traction Below 21-WMA & 100-DMA

*RES 4: Y87.97 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y87.79 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y87.46 - High Oct 27 

*RES 1: Y87.08 - Hourly resistance Oct 30

*PRICE: Y86.90 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y86.54 - Low Sept 26

*SUP 2: Y86.35 - Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: Y85.96 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: Y85.70 - Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy as it gains traction below the 100-DMA

(Y87.25) & 21-WMA (Y87.25) with bears currently focused on layers of support

Y85.45-86.54 where the bear channel base and 200-DMA are situated. The Bollinger

base (Y86.90) is the key concern for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y89.06 to end bearish hopes

and return focus to tests of 2017 highs.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On A$1.4999-1.5087 

*RES 4: A$1.5392 - 2017 High Oct 26

*RES 3: A$1.5298 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: A$1.5255 - High Oct 27

*RES 1: A$1.5187 - Hourly resistance Oct 27

*PRICE: A$1.5150 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5097 - Hourly support Oct 24 

*SUP 2: A$1.5087 - High Oct 20 now support, 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5024 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: A$1.4999 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The dramatic sell-off after trading at fresh 2017 and 16mth highs

left the pair looking very heavy with losses Friday seeing bears focused on

A$1.4999-1.5087 where 21 & 55-DMA and the bull channel base are situated. Bears

need a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a move to A$1.4790 Sept lows with below

the 100-DMA (A$1.4913) to confirm. Bulls now look for a close above A$1.5255 to

shift focus back to recent 2017 highs.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 100-DMA Targets Deeper Correction

*RES 4: 95.312 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 2: 94.927 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 1: 94.668 - Hourly resistance Oct 30

*PRICE: 94.516 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 94.306 - Hourly resistance Oct 26 now support

*SUP 2: 94.000 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.666 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.477 - Low Oct 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on last week's test of the bull

channel top with the pair looking a little heavy having closed back below

94.717. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to shift focus to

92.724-93.666. Overall below 92.724 is needed to target 2017 lows. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 95.464 to shift focus to 96.205-97.045 where

the 200-DMA (96.843 is found.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1689-1.1725 Resistance Key

*RES 4: $1.1785 Hourly resistance Oct 26 

*RES 3: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1689 Hourly support Oct 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1659 Hourly resistance Oct 26

*PRICE: $1.1644 @ 1930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1575 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $1.1522 Daily bear channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.1478 Low July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: Following the topside failure around the 55-DMA ($1.1832) last week

the pair headed lower with bears focused on $1.1478-1.1575 where the bear

channel base is noted. The weekly close below the 200-WMA ($1.1671) added weight

to the bearish case. The Bollinger base ($1.1629) remains the key concern and

currently limits follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.1689 to ease

bearish pressure and above $1.1725 to target the 55-DMA.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Shifts To Y111.32-112.30

*RES 4: Y115.24 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 3: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 2: Y114.00 Hourly resistance Oct 28 

*RES 1: Y113.52 Hourly support Oct 30 now resistance

*PRICE: Y113.12 @ 1930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.89 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 3: Y112.30 Low Oct 19 

*SUP 4: Y111.72 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls repeatedly failed to take out the key Y114.49 resistance last

week with the pair remaining heavy as it trades below the daily bull channel

base (Y113.54). Focus now shifts to the Y111.32-112.30 support region where 55,

100 & 200-DMAs are clustered. Daily studies correcting modestly O/B adds weight

to the bearish case. Bulls now look for a close above Y113.52 to ease bearish

pressure and above Y114.00 to return pressure to the key Y114.49 level.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1283.7 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1296.9 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 2: $1283.7 - High Oct 24 

*RES 1: $1280.9 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1276.0 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1268.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1261.8 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1260.6 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $1259.9 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA is less than ideal for bears who

are focused on $1243.8-1260.6 where the 200-DMA and channel base are situated.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1283.7 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA, easing bearish pressure & initially correcting back to $1291.1-1296.9

where the 55-DMA is found. Bears now look for a close below the 200-DMA to add

weight to their case.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]