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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
21 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: 200-DMA Capping For Now, $0.7623 Support Key
*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*RES 2: $0.7692 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7670 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7665 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 sees the pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs.
Layers of resistance remain $0.7670-0.7788 with bulls needing a close above the
100-DMA ($0.7788) to shift overall focus to 2017 highs. Key supports remain with
bears still needing a close below $0.7623 to ease immediate bullish pressure and
below $0.7580 to return initial focus to $0.7482-00 where the weekly bull
channel base is noted.
KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: $0.7103 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7050 - Low Oct 9 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7033 - High Dec 15
*RES 1: $0.6994 - Hourly resistance Dec 19
*PRICE: $0.6976 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6942 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: $0.6923 - Hourly support Dec 12
*SUP 3: $0.6901 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.6886 - Hourly support Dec 11a
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of $0.7050 is less than ideal for bulls
and sees pressure back on the 55-DMA as daily studies correct from modestly O/B
and resistance layers build. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease
bullish pressure and below $0.6901 to reconfirm focus on 2017 lows and the
weekly bear channel base ($0.6693). Bulls need a close above $0.7050 to target
$0.7200-25 although 100 ($0.7086) & 200 ($0.7103) DMAs may slow the move.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.1045 Resistance Key To Further Topside
*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14
*RES 3: NZ$1.1045 - Low Dec 5 now resistance
*RES 2: NZ$1.1027 - Hourly resistance Dec 6
*RES 1: NZ$1.1012 - High Dec 20
*PRICE: NZ$1.0986 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0966 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0904 - Low Dec 18
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0858 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0827 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA and key WMAs NZ$1.0722-63 took its
toll with an aggressive bounce last Thursday that eased bearish pressure. Bulls
need a close above NZ$1.1045 to confirm breaks of 21 (NZ$1.0993) & 55
(NZ$1.1044) DMAs and initially target NZ$1.1139. Bears need a close below
NZ$1.0904 to retain focus on the NZ$1.0722-1.0858 support region. Below the
100-WMA (NZ$1.0722) shifts focus back to NZ$1.0364 June lows.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA Targets 2017 High
*RES 4: Y88.37 - Low Oct 19 now resistance
*RES 3: Y88.09 - High Nov 2
*RES 2: Y87.72 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: Y87.03 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: Y86.95 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y86.64 - High Dec 19 now support
*SUP 2: Y86.28 - Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 3: Y85.84 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: Y85.64 - Low Dec 13
*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure is now on the 100-DMA with bulls needing a close
above to shift focus to Y87.72-89.06. The Bollinger top (Y86.75) remains the key
concern for bulls. Support layers continue to build with bears now needing a
close below Y86.64 to ease immediate bullish pressure and hint at a correction
back to the 200-DMA. A close below the 200-DMA is needed to return focus to
Y84.33-65.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above 21-DMA Targets 2017 High
*RES 4: A$1.5614 - Hourly resistance Dec 12a
*RES 3: A$1.5560 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: A$1.5559 - High Dec 13
*RES 1: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20
*PRICE: A$1.5495 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5469 - Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 2: A$1.5411 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support
*SUP 3: A$1.5335 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: A$1.5326 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA and bull channel base reconfirmed significance with
bulls taking comfort in Tuesday's bounce. In saying that, bulls still need a
close above the 21-DMA to return focus to A$1.5695-1.5774 where 2017 highs are
located. Fresh 2017 highs initially target the bull channel top (A$1.5883).
Bears continue to look for a close below the channel base to hint at deeper
sell-off with below A$1.5079 to target the 200-DMA (A$1.4889).
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key
*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12
*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13
*RES 2: 93.785 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 93.535 - High Dec 20
*PRICE: 93.318 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 93.163 - Low Dec 20
*SUP 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*SUP 3: 93.012 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: 92.604 - Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA
this week with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on the
100-DMA. Bears look for a close below 93.163 to add weight to their case with a
close below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls now look for a
close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 94.219 to reconfirm a
bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (94.537) is noted.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1924-61
*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20
*RES 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27
*RES 2: $1.1940 High Dec 1
*RES 1: $1.1924 Daily Bear channel top
*PRICE: $1.1877 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1862 Hourly resistance Dec 20 now support
*SUP 2: $1.1827 Low Dec 20
*SUP 3: $1.1805 Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 4: $1.1775 Low Dec 19
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $1.1690 level have
provided the base for a move that sees the pair flirting with the $1.1884
resistance. Bulls now focus on the $1.1924-61 region with a close above shifting
focus to $1.2033-1.2092 2017 highs. Daily studies are well placed for gains.
Bears now need a close below $1.1827 to ease bullish pressure and see focus
return to the key $1.1690 support.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus Returns to Y113.74-114.07
*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6
*RES 3: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High
*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 1: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*PRICE: Y113.40 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.08 High Dec 19 now support
*SUP 2: Y112.85 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Y112.39 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on dips with the marginal close
above the 55-DMA Tuesday seeing bulls initially focus on Y113.74-114.07. Bulls
look for a close above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then Y118.60 2017 highs.
Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to
Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a
close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).
EURO-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus On Y139.02-141.05
*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015
*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015
*RES 2: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance
*RES 1: Y134.73 2017 High Dec 20
*PRICE: Y134.65 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.25 Hourly Breakout level Dec 20
*SUP 2: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 4: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs open up for a potential move targeting
monthly highs Y139.02-141.05 seen in 2015. The Bolli top (Y134.47) is the key
concern for bulls. Layers of support are following the pair higher with bears
now needing a close below Y133.60 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back
to the key Y130.59-132.40 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base
are noted. Immediate bullish focus shifts to Y135.84-136.40.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1249.2-1256.5 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $1281.0 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1
*RES 2: $1275.8 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $1265.2 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18
*SUP 2: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 3: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13
*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back
towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are
noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears needing a close below
$1256.5 to gain breathing room, below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to
$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to
add to confidence.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.