MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7916 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 3: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 2: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 1: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*PRICE: $0.7960 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7916 - High Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7846 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Bullish focus shifted to tests of 2017 highs following gains last

week and support emerging ahead of 21 ($0.7809) & 100 ($0.7772) DMAs. Bears now

need a close below $0.7916 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below the

200-DMA ($0.7712) to hint at a move back to $0.7500 with below $0.7625 to

confirm. Bulls now look for the close above $0.7986 needed to add support to

their case. O/B studies and the Bollinger top ($0.7980) are concerns for bulls.

KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7257

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7433 - Monthly High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $0.7374 - High Sept 25 

*RES 1: $0.7314 - 2018 High Jan 15

*PRICE: $0.7275 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7257 - Hourly support Jan 15

*SUP 2: $0.7221 - Low Jan 12

*SUP 3: $0.7211 - Hourly support Jan 11

*SUP 4: $0.7173 - Hourly resistance Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above $0.7243 Thursday ended bearish hopes and shifted

initial focus to $0.7374-0.7433 where Sept highs are located. O/B daily studies

looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support hold

firm. Bears now look for a close below $0.7257 to ease bullish pressure and

below $0.7221 to target a correction back to $0.7116-30 where the 200-DMA is

situated.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 21 & 55-DMAs Key Resistance

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1012 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.1004 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0963 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0940 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0895 - Low Jan 15

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0836 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0824 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0798 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to the 200-DMA sees pressure back on

NZ$1.0963-1.1012 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are located. Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above

the 10-DMA to regain control and target 2017 highs once again. Bears now need a

close below NZ$1.0895 to gain breathing room and below NZ$1.0730 (100-DMA) to

initially target NZ$1.0588.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 3: Y88.83 - High Jan 9 

*RES 2: Y88.41 - High Jan 16 

*RES 1: Y88.20 - Hourly resistance Jan 16

*PRICE: Y87.79 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.24 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: Y86.58 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.12 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: Y85.92 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the lack of topside follow through and

relatively bearish close on the break of Y88.40 but the 100-DMA remains key

today. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

Y85.92 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and initially target Y84.33 Nov lows.

Bulls now look for a close above Y88.41 to return focus to Y89.06-90.30.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5311 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: A$1.5559 - High Dec 13

*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 2: A$1.5467 - Hourly support Dec 21 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5446 - High Jan 12

*PRICE: A$1.5410 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5339 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: A$1.5312 - High Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5236 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 2mth lows and below the 100-DMA

last week was followed up with a rally Friday that sees bullish focus shift to

A$1.5586 this week. Bulls then need a close above this level to confirm focus on

2017 highs. The A$1.5311 support remains key. Bears still need a close below to

ease renewed bullish pressure and return focus to A$1.5079-1.5152.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Focused On 88.125

*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.826 - High Jan 16

*PRICE: 90.404 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.279 - 2018 Low Jan 15

*SUP 2: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 3: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*SUP 4: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy with recent 3+ year lows seeing bears

focused on the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low. O/S daily studies and Bollinger band

base (90.628) are concerns for bears. Layers of resistance accumulating adds

weight to the bearish case with bulls needing a close above 91.011 to ease

bearish pressure and above 91.879 to hint at a correction back to 92.412-93.308

where key DMAs are clustered.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2156-86 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1.2694 LT Weekly Bear Channel top

*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 2: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2297 2018 High Jan 15

*PRICE: $1.2270 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2247 Hourly resistance Jan 16 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2186 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 3: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2111 Hourly support Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($1.1988) provided the base last week for a rally to

3+yr highs with bulls now focused on the LT weekly bear channel top off mid 2008

highs. O/B studies and Bollinger top are key concerns for bulls. Layers of

support are accumulating with bears needing a close below $1.2156 to ease

bullish pressure and below $1.2075 to shift focus back to $1.1840-1.1988 where

key DMAs are noted.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y111.19

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.71 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.19 High Jan 15 

*RES 1: Y110.97 High Jan 16

*PRICE: Y110.30 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.68 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 2: Y109.54 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: Y104.95 Low Now 10 2016

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower that began with failures ahead of Y113.44 sees

bears initially focused on Y109.54-68 where the bear channel base is situated

with overall focus on tests of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are accumulating

and weighing. Bulls still need a close above Y111.19 to gain breathing room and

above the 100-DMA to shift focus back to Y112.66-113.44 where the 55-DMA and

bear channel top are noted.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y134.81

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8, Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y136.09 High Jan 16

*PRICE: Y135.35 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11 

*SUP 4: Y133.12 21-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off found support around the 21-WMA and ahead of the

100-DMA (Y132.94) with the recovery seeing initial focus on 2018 highs. While

the 100-DMA (Y132.94) supports overall bullish focus remains on 139.02-141.05

where monthly highs are noted. Bears still need a close back below Y134.81 to

ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Below the

100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1326.6 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 1: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15

*PRICE: $1339.5 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.7 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: $1326.6 - High Jan 10 now support 

*SUP 3: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 4: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Recent fresh 2018 and 4mth highs have lacked a little follow

through so far but bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of the Jan 10

high which retains focus on 2017 and then 2016 highs. O/B studies and the

Bollinger band top ($1354.0) remain key concerns for bulls. Bears now look for a

close below $1326.6 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to

$1301.7-1302.5 where the 21-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]