MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Hesitation Leaves Pair Looking Heavy

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8144 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*RES 1: $0.8118 - High Jan 29

*PRICE: $0.8040 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8002 - Low Jan 26 

*SUP 2: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 3: $0.7961 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 remains a concern given daily

studies looking to correct from O/B. Bulls look for a close above $0.8162 to

shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8456) is

noted. The break of $0.8040 following Wednesday's topside failure leaves the

pair looking heavy and risks a correction to $0.7916-61 where the 21-DMA is

noted. Below $0.7916 remains needed to target $0.7729-0.7802.

KIWI TECHS: Topside Failures Weighing

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: $0.7420 - High Jan 31 

*RES 1: $0.7398 - Hourly support Jan 31 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7356 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7325 - Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: $0.7277 - Low Jan 30

*SUP 3: $0.7266 - Low Jan 22

*SUP 4: $0.7264 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation continues with bulls needing a close above

$0.7435 to reconfirm the bullish bias and target tests of $0.7558 2017 highs.

Correcting O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls with Tuesday's

topside rejection weighing. Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA

to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7217 to shift focus to $0.7042-0.7134

where key DMAs are clustered.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Initial Focus Returns To NZ$1.0817-46

*RES 4: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 30

*RES 3: NZ$1.1039 - High Jan 31

*RES 2: NZ$1.1002 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0960 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*PRICE: NZ$1.0932 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0917 - Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0846 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0817 - 55-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0733 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2mth highs lacked follow through with Wednesday's

sell-off seeing the pair close below 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and return focus to

NZ$1.0817-46 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are noted. Overall bears need a close

below the 100-WMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus to NZ$1.0442 where the LT

rising TL is noted. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above NZ$1.1139 to target 2017 highs.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Rejected Above 21-DMA, 100-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y90.30 - 2017 High Sept 21 

*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y88.50 - High Jan 31

*PRICE: Y87.85 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.45 - Low Jan 30

*SUP 2: Y87.34 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.85 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.47 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair has remained capped ahead of Y89.09 with follow through

above the 21-DMA (Y88.22) lacking. The 100-DMA remains key support. Bears look

for a close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.85 where 55 &

200-DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 to

reconfirm a bullish bias and target 2017 highs (Y90.30). Daily studies are at

neural levels and giving few clues.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Pressuring A$1.5437-1.5526 Region

*RES 4: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 3: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25

*RES 2: A$1.5454 - Daily bear channel top

*RES 1: A$1.5437 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5418 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5337 - Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 2: A$1.5281 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29 

*SUP 4: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with the 100-DMA bears failed to manage the close

below A$1.5256 needed to shift focus to A$1.5070-1.5141 where the 200-DMA is

found. The recovery sees pressure back on A$1.5437-1.5526 where the bear channel

top and 55-DMA are noted. Overall bulls still need a close above A$1.5526 to

target A$1.5774 2017 highs. Bears now look for a close below A$1.5337 to ease

pressure on resistance layers.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113

*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 89.637 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: 89.200 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.780 - Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: 88.723 - Low Jan 26

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears who

are currently focused on 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly lows. Layers of resistance

remain and weigh. Bulls still need a close above 90.113 to gain breathing room

and above 91.011 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (90.709) and shift focus to

92.342-889 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below 88.438 to add

weight to their case.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2322

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 2: $1.2494 High Jan 26

*RES 1: $1.2475 High Jan 31

*PRICE: $1.2390 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 2: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking

comfort in the bounce Tuesday. Topside follow through remains lacking with bulls

now needing a close above $1.2475 to reconfirm initial focus on retests of 2018

highs and overall focus on tests of the weekly bear channel top ($1.2661). Bears

look for a close below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2213

where the 21-DMA ($1.2205) is noted.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Remain Key Concern

*RES 4: Y110.82 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.76 High Jan 26

*PRICE: Y109.25 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 4: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows with

follow through lacking as support emerges on dips. Bears now need a close below

Y108.12 to reconfirm initial focus on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the weekly

triangle base are located. Bulls still need a close above Y110.18 to ease

bearish pressure and target a correction back to Y110.82-111.98 where key DMAs

are noted.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y136.62 Targets Y139.02-141.05

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 1: Y135.24 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y135.42 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.10 Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 2: Y134.64 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 3: Y134.08 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y134.02 Daily bull channel base (off Aug 18 low)

*COMMENTARY: The Y133.48-134.08 support region where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull

channel base are located confirmed significance Tuesday. The bounce provided

bulls breathing room and sees focus reconfirmed on Y136.32-62. A close above

Y136.62 is needed to again target Y139.02-141.05 monthly highs. Bears now need a

close below Y135.10 to ease pressure on resistance and below the 100-DMA to

target Y130.34-132.03 where the 200-DMA (Y130.34) is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1331.2 Targets $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1348.9 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: $1342.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 2: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's 2018 high remains

a concern for bulls and leaves gold looking a little heavy. Daily studies

correcting are weighing. Bears need a close below $1331.2 to shift initial focus

to $1302.5-1305.6. Initial resistance is noted at $1348.9 but bulls need a close

above $1352.3 to gain breathing room and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $

$1391.8-1433.3.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Below $62.78 To Target $58.82-60.75 

*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $65.68 - Hourly resistance Jan 29 

*RES 1: $65.19 - Hourly resistance Jan 30

*PRICE: $64.71 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $63.62 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 3: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $60.75 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is currently supporting as daily studies correcting from

O/B add weight to the bearish case. In saying that, bears continue to look for a

close below $62.78 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and initially focus on

$58.82-60.75 where the 55-DMA ($59.92) is found. Bulls now look for a close

above $65.68 to reconfirm focus on $69.54 (Dec 1 2014 high).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]