MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To $0.7229-0.7802

*RES 4: $0.8118 - High Jan 29

*RES 3: $0.8079 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 2: $0.8046 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*RES 1: $0.7976 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7910 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 3: $0.7783 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7746 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 has taken its toll with a sharp

sell-off and bearish close below the 21-DMA ($0.7976) leaving the pair looking

heavy and bears now focused on $0.7729-0.7802 where key DMAs are situated. Daily

studies are well placed for losses. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to

ease immediate bearish pressure and above $0.8046 to shift focus back to

$0.8135-62.

KIWI TECHS: $0.7266 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 3: $0.7420 - High Jan 31 

*RES 2: $0.7403 - High Feb 1 

*RES 1: $0.7332 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7291 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7325 - Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: $0.7273 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7266 - Low Jan 22

*SUP 4: $0.7217 - Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble recent 2018 highs last week leaves the pair

looking heavy and flirting with the 21-DMA ($0.7293). The $0.7266 support is key

this week. Bears need a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift

initial focus to $0.7217 and overall focus to $0.7042-0.7141 where key DMAs are

noted. Bulls now need a close above $0.7332 to gain breathing room and retain

focus on 2018 highs.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0997 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0960 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 2: NZ$1.0921 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*RES 1: NZ$1.0881 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*PRICE: NZ$1.0843 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0820 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0821 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0772 - 200-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0729 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2mth highs lacked follow through with Wednesday's

sell-off seeing the pair close below key DMAs and return focus to NZ$1.0821-46

where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are noted. The pair currently flirts with the

200-DMA (NZ$1.0846). Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to end bullish hopes

and shift focus to NZ$1.0442 where the LT rising TL is noted. Bulls need a close

above NZ$1.0960 to ease bearish pressure.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Focus on 55-WMA While Y87.45 Caps

*RES 4: Y88.50 - High Jan 31 

*RES 3: Y88.06 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y87.45 - Low Jan 30 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y87.31 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: Y87.13 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y86.97 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: Y86.52 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.19 - 55-WMA

*SUP 4: Y85.92 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The pair remained capped ahead of Y89.09 with follow through above

the 21-DMA lacking. Bears take comfort in pressure now on Y85.92-86.97 where key

DMAS and the 55-WMA are noted. Bears now need a close below the 55-WMA to add

weight to the case for a move initially targeting Y84.33-65. Layers of

resistance are now weighing with bulls needing a close above Y87.45 to ease

immediate bearish pressure.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5469-1.5586 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5814 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5774 - 2017 High Dec 1

*PRICE: A$1.5717 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5674 - Hourly support Feb 2 

*SUP 2: A$1.5586 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: A$1.5510 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 4: A$1.5469 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with the 100-DMA bears failed to manage the close

below A$1.5256 needed to shift focus to A$1.5087-1.5141 where the 200-DMA is

found. The recovery resulted in closes above key levels and bulls focused on

A$1.5774 once more. Layers of support following the pair higher sees bears

needing a close below A$1.5586 to ease bullish pressure and below the A$1.5469

to shift focus back to A$1.5256-1.5378.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 88.438 Targets 86.879-87.627

*RES 4: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 2: 89.637 - High Jan 30 

*RES 1: 89.425 - High Feb 2

*PRICE: 89.195 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 4: 87.451 - Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows has failed to produce the close

below needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel

base. Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a

close above 89.637 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to

shift initial focus to 91.011-751. 89.637 caps bears focus on a close below

88.438.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Weekly Bear Chanel Top Lurking Above

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 2: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 1: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: $1.2436 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2407 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 2: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 3: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2267 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking

comfort in the bounce Tuesday. The recovery has remained capped ahead of 2018

highs and remains a little heavy. Bears need a close below $1.2322 to hint at a

correction back to $1.2092-1.2156 with below the 21-DMA to add weight to their

case. Bulls need a close above $1.2536 to add support to the case for a tests of

the LT weekly bear channel top ($1.2670).

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: Y111.75 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.71 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: Y110.40 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y110.14 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.90 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.23 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.87 Hourly support Jan 31 

*SUP 4: Y108.40 Low Jan 30

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows with

follow through lacking as support emerged on dips. The 21-DMA capped Friday

which is less than ideal with bulls now needing a close above to confirm focus

on Y111.22-112.66 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

Correcting O/S studies add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close

below Y109.23 to return initial focus to Y108.12-40.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y135.95

*RES 4: Y139.62 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 21 2015

*RES 2: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015

*RES 1: Y137.23 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y136.95 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.64 Hourly support Feb 2 

*SUP 2: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 3: Y135.43 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y135.10 Hourly support Jan 31a

*COMMENTARY: The Y133.53-134.15 support confirmed significance Tuesday. The

recovery resulted in fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs and confirmed overall bullish focus

on Y139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are located. Support layers accumulating

add to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below Y135.95 to ease

immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to return focus to

Y133.61-134.32 where 55 & 100-DMAs and bull channel base are found.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Now Focused On $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1336.9 - Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: $1332.9 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1327.1 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 2: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: The failure to break back above $1352.3 last week left gold looking

heavy and resulted in a marginal close below the 21-DMA ($1334.7) Friday adding

weight to the case for a test of $1302.5-1305.6. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above $1252.3 to regain the

upper hand and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3.

NYMEX WTI: (H18) Topside Failures A Concern 

*RES 4: $68.67 - Daily bull channel top 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $66.30 - High Feb 2 

*RES 1: $65.76 - Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: $65.45 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 2: $64.06 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $63.67 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 4: $62.78 - Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls and

risk a correction back to the $60.22-62.05 region where the 55-DMA is located.

Bears now look for a close below $63.67 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

shift focus to $60.22-62.05. Bulls continue to look for a close above $66.66 to

shift focus to $68.67-71.27 where daily and weekly bull channel tops are

situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]