MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7229-0.7802

*RES 4: $0.8046 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*RES 3: $0.7976 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 1: $0.7893 - Hourly resistance Feb 6

*PRICE: $0.7884 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7832 - Low Feb 6 

*SUP 2: $0.7813 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 4: $0.7788 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 took its toll with bearish focus

currently on the $0.7729-0.7802 region where key DMAs are clustered. The

Bollinger base is the key concern with support emerging on dips. Bulls now need

a close above $0.7893 to gain breathing room now and above the 21-DMA to shift

focus back to 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below $0.7729 to shift focus

back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7332

*RES 4: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 3: $0.7420 - High Jan 31 

*RES 2: $0.7403 - High Feb 1 

*RES 1: $0.7332 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7301 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7255 - Low Feb 6

*SUP 2: $0.7217 - Low Jan 12

*SUP 3: $0.7142 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to gain traction below the 21-DMA

($0.7297) with the pair oscillating around this level. Bears now focus on

$0.7217 with a close below to initially target $0.7042-0.7142 where key DMAs are

clustered. Bulls still need a close above $0.7332 to ease bearish pressure and

return initial focus to $0.7420-88. Daily studies have corrected back to more

neutral levels.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0960 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 3: NZ$1.0921 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*RES 2: NZ$1.0881 - High Feb 5

*RES 1: NZ$1.0820 - 55-WMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0797 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0753 - 2018 Low Feb 6

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0728 - 100-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with a sharp sell-off back

towards the 100-WMA. Follow through has been a little lacking with bears needing

a close below the 100-WMA to shift focus to NZ$1.0442-91 where the LT rising TL

is located. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a

close above NZ$1.0881 to ease bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0921 to shift

focus back to NZ$1.1073 2018 highs.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y86.53-87.50 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y87.50 - High Feb 5 

*RES 3: Y87.26 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Y86.63 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 1: Y86.53 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y86.23 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y85.45 - Hourly support Feb 6

*SUP 2: Y84.99 - 2018 Low Feb 6

*SUP 3: Y84.65 - Low Nov 30

*SUP 4: Y84.33 - Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: Monday's close below key DMAs was followed up with a sharp sell-off

Tuesday although follow through has been lacking. In saying that, the

Y86.53-87.50 resistance region is now key. Bulls need a close above Y86.63 to

ease bearish pressure and above Y87.50 to shift focus back to Y88.50-89.09 where

the bear channel top is situated. Bears currently focus on Nov lows while Y86.63

caps.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5469-1.5630 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5816 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5796 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: A$1.5716 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5630 - Low Feb 5 

*SUP 2: A$1.5586 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: A$1.5510 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 4: A$1.5469 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Despite recently flirting with the 100-DMA bears failed to manage

the close below A$1.5256 needed to shift focus to A$1.5087-1.5141 where the

200-DMA is found. The recovery resulted in closes above key levels and fresh

2018 & 2 year highs. Layers of support following the pair higher sees bears

needing a close below A$1.5630 to ease bullish pressure and below A$1.5586 to

shift focus back to A1.5469.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 21-DMA Resistance Key

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.165 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24

*PRICE: 89.593 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*SUP 2: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*SUP 3: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base.

Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls still need a

close above the 21-DMA (90.165) to shift initial focus to 91.011-751. Bears now

need a close below 89.373 to ease renewed bullish pressure and return initial

focus to 88.438.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Sell-Off Lacks Follow Through

*RES 4: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 3: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 2: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*RES 1: $1.2433 High Feb 6

*PRICE: $1.2394 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2358 Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2313 Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2284 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2213 Low Jan 22

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip below $1.2322 with the pair

finding support ahead of the 21-DMA. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to

confirm a shift in focus to $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies correcting from O/B

remain the key concern for bulls. The $1.2433 resistance is key today. Bulls

need a close above this level to gain breathing room and to reconfirm focus on

tests of the weekly bear channel top ($1.2670).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.12

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: Y110.17 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.64 High Feb 6

*PRICE: Y109.30 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 4: Y107.76 Weekly Triangle base

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining capped around the 21-DMA bears have failed to

manage the break of Y108.12 needed to confirm initial focus on Y107.31-76 where

the rising weekly triangle base and 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies

lingering around O/S levels are less than ideal. Bulls now need a close above

Y109.64 to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to initially target

Y111.22-112.56 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 100-DMA

*RES 4: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015

*RES 3: Y137.22 High Feb 5

*RES 2: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 1: Y135.78 High Feb 6

*PRICE: Y135.51 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.51 Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 2: Y133.82 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 3: Y133.61 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y133.04 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through after recent 2018 & 2+yr highs

has resulted in a correction back towards the Y133.60-134.35 region where the 55

& 100-DMAs and bull channel base are located. Bears look for a close below the

100-DMA to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA (Y130.62) with below Y133.04 to

confirm. Bulls now need a close above Y135.95 to ease pressure on key supports

and return focus to Y137.22-58 where 2018 highs are found.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $1326.7 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 2: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Bounces remain capped ahead of $1352.3 with bulls needing a close

above this level to regain the upper hand and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$1391.8-1433.3. Layers of support are starting to build with bears now needing a

close below $1323.7 to reconfirm focus on $1302.5-1305.6. Daily studies have

room to move before O/S is an issue.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above $64.47 

*RES 4: $65.76 - Hourly resistance Feb 2 

*RES 3: $65.40 - High Feb 5 

*RES 2: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.26 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $63.32 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $62.05 - High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.75 - High Jan 2 now support 

*SUP 4: $60.50 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls and

risks a correction back to the $60.37-62.05 region where the 55-DMA is located.

Bears now look for a close below $62.78 to add weight to their case. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above

$64.47 to ease bearish pressure and above $65.43 to reconfirm initial focus on

2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]