MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7729 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $0.7981 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 2: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*RES 1: $0.7832 - Low Feb 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7824 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 2: $0.7792 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7772 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7750 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 took its toll with bearish focus

currently on the $0.7729-0.7802 region where key DMAs are clustered. The

Bollinger base ($0.7815) is the key concern with support emerging on dips. Bulls

need a close above $0.7911 to gain breathing room now and above the 21-DMA to

shift focus back to 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below $0.7729 confirm

breaks of DMA & WMAS & to shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7332

*RES 4: $0.7403 - High Feb 1 

*RES 3: $0.7345 - High Feb 7 

*RES 2: $0.7325 - Hourly resistance Feb 7a 

*RES 1: $0.7305 - Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: $0.7253 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7217 - Low Jan 12

*SUP 2: $0.7144 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7107 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy as it again trades below the 21-DMA

($0.7304) with immediate focus on $0.7217. Bears need a close below to initially

target $0.7042-0.7144 where key DMAs are clustered. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $0.7345 to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and to return focus to $0.7420-88.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0960 - Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 3: NZ$1.0921 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*RES 2: NZ$1.0881 - High Feb 5

*RES 1: NZ$1.0820 - 55-WMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0780 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0744 - 2018 Low Feb 7

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0728 - 100-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll this week with a sharp

sell-off back towards the 100-WMA. Follow through has been a little lacking with

bears needing a close below the 100-WMA to shift focus to NZ$1.0442-91 where the

LT rising TL is located. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing.

Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0881 to ease bearish pressure and above

NZ$1.0921 to shift focus back to NZ$1.1073 2018 highs.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y86.53-87.50 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y87.50 - High Feb 5 

*RES 3: Y87.22 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Y86.73 - High Feb 7 

*RES 1: Y86.54 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y85.53 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y85.42 - Hourly support Feb76

*SUP 2: Y84.99 - 2018 Low Feb 6

*SUP 3: Y84.65 - Low Nov 30

*SUP 4: Y84.33 - Monthly Low Nov 27

*COMMENTARY: Monday's close below key DMAs was followed up with a sharp sell-off

Tuesday although follow through has been lacking. In saying that, the

Y86.53-87.50 resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close above Y86.73 to

ease bearish pressure and above Y87.50 to shift focus back to Y88.50-89.09 where

the bear channel top is situated. Bears currently focus on Nov lows (Y84.33)

while Y86.73 caps.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5630

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5816 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5796 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: A$1.5692 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5630 - Low Feb 5 

*SUP 2: A$1.5586 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: A$1.5510 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 4: A$1.5469 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Despite recently flirting with the 100-DMA bears failed to manage

the close below A$1.5256 needed to shift focus to A$1.5087-1.5141 where the

200-DMA is found. The recovery resulted in closes above key levels and fresh

2018 & 2 year highs. Layers of support following the pair higher sees bears

needing a close below A$1.5630 to ease bullish pressure and below A$1.5586 to

shift focus back to A1.5469.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Shifts To 91.011-751

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.252 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.058 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.720 - Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support

*SUP 3: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*SUP 4: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base

(87.401). The likely close above 90.113 eases bearish pressure and shifts focus

to 91.011-751. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 89.373 to return initial focus

to 88.438 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Gaining Traction Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2406 High Feb 7

*RES 3: $1.2363 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2313 Low Feb 6 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2299 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2278 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2039 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA sees the pair gaining traction below with a

close below needed to confirm focus on $1.2017-1.2156 where the 55-DMA is

located. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of

resistance accumulating also adds weight to the bearish case. Bulls now look for

a close above $1.2213 to gain breathing room and above $1.2433 to return focus

to 2018 highs and then the weekly bear channel top ($1.2670).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.12

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: Y110.03 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.71 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: Y109.44 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.87 Hourly support Feb 6 Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 4: Y108.12 Low Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining capped around the 21-DMA bears have failed to

manage the break of Y108.12 needed to confirm initial focus on Y107.31-76 where

the rising weekly triangle base and 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies

correcting from O/S levels are less than ideal. Bulls now need a close above the

21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to initially target

Y111.22-112.53 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y135.95

*RES 4: Y137.22 High Feb 5

*RES 3: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 2: Y135.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: Y134.58 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: Y134.35 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.75 21-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y133.62 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y133.04 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: Y132.03 Monthly Low Dec 13

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs sees the pair again pressuring

the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a

move back to the 200-DMA (Y130.68) and below Y133.04 to confirm. Bulls still

need a close above Y135.95 to ease pressure on key supports and return focus to

Y137.22-58 where 2018 highs are found. Above Y137.58 remains needed to confirm

focus on monthly highs Y139.02-141.05 last seen in 2015 are found.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1301.5-1305.9

*RES 4: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 2: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1332.6 - High Feb 7

*PRICE: $1314.5 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1301.5 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1292.8 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs continues with immediate focus

now on $1301.5-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located. Overall bears look for a

close below the 200-DMA ($1279.5) to confirm focus on Dec lows ($1235.9) & the

200-WMA ($1232.3). Bulls now look for a close above $1332.6 to ease bearish

pressure and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $65.40 - High Feb 5 

*RES 3: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: $64.26 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $61.86 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.75 - High Jan 2 now support 

*SUP 2: $60.62 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $58.82 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $57.32 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls

with the break lower Wednesday seeing immediate focus on the 55-DMA. Bears now

look for a close below the 55-DMA to shift focus to the $55.30-57.33 region

where the 100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance left in the wake are

accumulating and adding to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close above

$62.78 to ease bearish pressure and above $64.47 to target 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]