MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Close Below $0.7729 Targets Dec Low

*RES 4: $0.7965 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 2: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*RES 1: $0.7843 - High Feb

*PRICE: $0.7809 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7755 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7625 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7616 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 took its toll with initial bearish

focus currently on the $0.7729-55 region where the 200-DMA is noted. The

Bollinger base ($0.7770) & O/S studies are key concerns for bears. Bulls need a

close above $0.7843 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift focus

back to 2018 highs. Bears need a close below $0.7729 confirm breaks of DMA &

WMAS & to shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

KIWI TECHS: Finding Support Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7345 - High Feb 7 

*RES 3: $0.7325 - Hourly resistance Feb 7a 

*RES 2: $0.7302 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7258 - High Feb 9

*PRICE: $0.7242 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7196 - Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: $0.7174 - Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: $0.7149 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Thursday has lacked follow through with bulls taking

comfort in support emerging ahead of the 200-DMA. Bears currently focus on

$0.7042-0.7149 where key DMAs are noted with a close below to confirm focus on

tests of 2017 lows ($0.6779). Bulls need a close above $0.7258 to ease bearish

pressure. Overall a close above $0.7345 is now needed to return initial focus to

$0.7420-88.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 100-WMA Remains Key Support

*RES 4: NZ$1.0956 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 2: NZ$1.0846 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0829 - Hourly resistance Feb 8

*PRICE: NZ$1.0768 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0743 - 2018 Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0728 - 100-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll this week with a sharp

sell-off back towards the 100-WMA. Follow through has been a little lacking with

bears needing a close below the 100-WMA to shift focus to NZ$1.0446-91 where the

LT rising TL is located. The rally Thursday was aggressively rejected ahead of

the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above NZ$1.1073 to target 2017 highs (NZ$1.1290).

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below 100-WMA To Target 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y86.73 - High Feb 7 

*RES 3: Y86.56 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 1: Y85.37 - High Feb 9

*PRICE: Y84.91 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y84.01 - 2018 Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: Y83.72 - Low June 22

*SUP 3: Y83.62 - 100-WMA

*SUP 4: Y83.57 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with immediate bearish focus now on the

100-WMA. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to shift overall focus to tests of

the Y81.49 2017 low. O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern

for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y85.98 to ease bearish pressure and

above Y87.50 to shift focus back to Y88.50-89.09 where the bear channel top is

situated.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5630 & A$1.5796 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5838 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5809 - Daily Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5796 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: A$1.5682 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5630 - Low Feb 5 

*SUP 2: A$1.5586 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: A$1.5510 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 4: A$1.5469 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 & 2yr highs remains less

than ideal for bulls who look for a close above to reconfirm initial focus on

A$1.5968. Layers of support remain in place with bears still needing a close

below A$1.5630 to ease bullish pressure and below A$1.5586 to shift focus back

to A1.5454-72 where 21 & 55-DMAs are situated. Daily studies lingering at O/B

levels remains a concern for bulls given topside hesitation.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: 90.442 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.013 - Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: 89.883 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.720 - Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support

*SUP 4: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base

(87.177). The close above 90.113 eased bearish pressure and shifted focus to

91.011-751. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears need a close below

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 89.373 to return initial focus to

88.438 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.2092-1.2156

*RES 4: $1.2406 High Feb 7

*RES 3: $1.2363 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2326 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2295 High Feb 8

*PRICE: $1.2245 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2204 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*SUP 4: $1.2058 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-DMA resulted in closes below and confirms

bearish focus on $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies approaching O/S are now a concern

for bears. In saying that, bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and above $1.2433 to return focus to 2018 highs and then the

weekly bear channel top ($1.2665). Overall bears look for a close below $1.1914

2018 lows to shift focus back to $1.1489-1.1552.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.79-110.47 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 1: Y109.29 Hourly resistance Feb 9

*PRICE: Y108.80 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.03 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Y107.89 Weekly Triangle base 

*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: Y106.63 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The pair remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA last week resulting in

fresh 2018 & 5mth lows. The lack of downside follow through is less than idea

with the Bollinger base noted at Y107.99. The Y109.78 resistance is key this

week. Bulls need a close above to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.68) and

bear channel top (Y109.55) to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to

initially target Y111.22-112.49 where key DMAs and a bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Lacking Follow Through Below Y133.04

*RES 4: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 3: Y135.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 1: Y134.15 Hourly resistance Feb 9

*PRICE: Y133.27 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.61 Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Y131.96 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.82 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 highs resulted in closes below the 21-WMA

(Y133.70) and 100-DMA (Y133.61) but follow through below Y133.04 has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger base (Y133.18). Bulls need a close above

Y135.09 to ease bearish pressure and above Y135.95 to shift focus back to 2018

highs (Y137.50). While Y135.09 caps immediate focus shifts to Y130.59-132.03

where monthly lows and 200-DMA are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 3: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Feb 7 

*RES 1: $1325.6 - Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: $1316.6 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2, 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1293.2 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1280.4 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs continues and has seen a dip

back towards $1302.5-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located only to bounce

aggressively which is less than ideal for bears. Bulls still need a close above

$1332.6 to ease bearish pressure and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$1391.8-1433.3. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight the

case for a test of the 200-DMA.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Below 100-DMA Targets 200-DMA 

*RES 4: $62.78 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $62.09 - High Feb 8 

*RES 2: $60.74 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $60.07 - Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: $59.20 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $58.07 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $57.50 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $56.92 - Low Dec 15 

*SUP 4: $56.19 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs resulted in a sell-off that

sees immediate focus now on the $100-DMA. Bears now look for a close below the

100-DMA to add weight to the case for a move then targeting the 200-DMA ($53.11)

although the 200-WMA may slow the move. Resistance layers have accumulated with

bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above

$64.47 to target 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]