MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7963 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 1: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: $0.7856 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7847 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $0.7825 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: $0.7808 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7758 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from last week's 200-DMA test

when combined with daily studies correcting from O/S. Bears now need a close

below the 55-DMA to retain focus on $0.7729-58 where the 200-DMA is noted.

Overall below $0.7729 confirms breaks of DMA & WMAS & shifts focus back to

$0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls need a close above $0.7911 to hint at a move back to

2018 highs with above $0.7985 to confirm.

KIWI TECHS: Above $0.7351 To Target 2018 Highs

*RES 4: $0.7419 - High Jan 31 

*RES 3: $0.7403 - High Feb 1 

*RES 2: $0.7351 - High Feb 6 

*RES 1: $0.7325 - Hourly resistance Feb 7a

*PRICE: $0.7274 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7267 - Hourly support Feb 13

*SUP 2: $0.7230 - Low Feb 12

*SUP 3: $0.7196 - Low Feb 9

*SUP 4: $0.7174 - Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low has seen higher daily highs and

lows with bulls now needing a close above $0.7351 to confirm a return in focus

to 2018 highs ($0.7435). Correcting modestly O/S studies add support to the

bullish case. In saying that, bears now need a close below $0.7230 to end

recovery talk and reconfirm focus on $0.7130-74 where 55 ($0.7133) & 200

($0.7151) DMAs are situated.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 100-WMA Remains Key Support

*RES 4: NZ$1.0990 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0943 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0900 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0847 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0799 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0743 - 2018 Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0724 - 100-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll last week with a sharp

sell-off back towards the 100-WMA. Follow through has been lacking with bears

needing a close below the 100-WMA to shift focus to NZ$1.0446-91 where the LT

rising TL is located. The rally Thursday was aggressively rejected ahead of the

21-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above NZ$1.1073 to target 2017 highs (NZ$1.1290).

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y85.98-87.50 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y86.56 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 2: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 1: Y84.81 - Hourly resistance Feb 13

*PRICE: Y84.63 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y84.25 - Low Feb13

*SUP 2: Y84.01 - 2018 Low Feb 9

*SUP 3: Y83.72 - Low June 22

*SUP 4: Y83.61 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with immediate bearish focus now on the

100-WMA. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to shift overall focus to tests of

the Y81.49 2017 low. O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern

for bears. Bulls still need a close above Y85.98 to ease bearish pressure and

above Y87.50 to confirm breaks of DMAs & shift focus back to Y88.50-89.09 where

the bear channel top is situated.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5601 & A$1.5796 Levels Key

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5845 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5796 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: A$1.5723 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5680 - Hourly resistance Feb 13 

*SUP 2: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise on hesitation ahead of 2018 highs

with the bounce Tuesday retaining immediate focus on the break of 2018 highs

needed to target A$1.6250 2016 highs. O/B daily studies remain the key concern

for bulls. Bears now need a close below A$1.5601 to shift initial focus to

A$1.5455-1.5546 where 21 (A$1.5486) & 55 (A$1.5455) are situated. Overall below

the 100-DMA (A$1.5346) targets 2018 lows (A$1.5152).

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Back On 89.373

*RES 4: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 3: 90.177 - High Feb 13 

*RES 2: 90.013 - Low Feb 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.846 - Hourly resistance Feb 13

*PRICE: 89.730 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.609 - Low Feb 13

*SUP 2: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*SUP 3: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*SUP 4: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: The index is looking a little heavy having failed to break above

last week's highs with immediate focus having returned to the 89.373 support.

Bears now need a close below this level to reconfirm immediate focus on 2018

lows and then the weekly bear channel base (87.202). Bulls now need a close

above 90.177 to gain breathing room and above 90.567 to hint at a move to

91.526-751. Correcting daily studies add weight to the bearish case.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2433 To Initially Target 2018 High

*RES 4: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 3: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*RES 2: $1.2433 High Feb 6

*RES 1: $1.2406 High Feb 7

*PRICE: $1.2351 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2308 Hourly resistance Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2280 Hourly support Feb 13 

*SUP 3: $1.2233 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 4: $1.2204 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low sees a likely close above the

21-DMA ($1.2332) providing bulls breathing room with a close above $1.2433 now

needed to return focus to 2018 highs and then the weekly bear channel top

($1.2665). Daily studies correcting from modestly O/S levels add to bullish

confidence. Bears now need a close below $1.2308 to signal a false break of the

21-DMA and return initial focus to $1.2204.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y109.24 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Y108.94 High Feb 12 

*RES 2: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Y107.71 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 2: Y106.33 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Y105.89 High Nov 9 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off now sees the pair hesitating ahead of the 2017 low as

layers of resistance accumulate and weigh. Bears need a close below 2017 lows to

confirm a break of the LT rising TL off 2012 lows coming in around Y107.87

today. Below 2017 lows than shifts overall focus to 2016 lows at Y98.08. Bulls

now look for a close above Y108.42 to ease bearish pressure and above Y109.79 to

confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.54) and bear channel top.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y134.47 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y133.05 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.50 Low Feb 13 

*SUP 2: Y131.96 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.87 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from 2018 lows bulls have failed to gain

traction above the 100-DMA (Y133.62). Bulls now look for a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Y135.95 to initially target 2018 highs

(Y137.50). While the 55-DMA caps immediate focus remains on Y130.59-131.15 where

monthly lows and 200-DMA are noted with a close below Y131.96 to add weight to

their case. Daily studies lingering at O/S levels are the key concern for bears.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1321.63 & 21-DMA Levels Key

*RES 4: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 3: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1334.6 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1332.6 - High Feb 7

*PRICE: $1328.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.3 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 2: $1316.5 - Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 3: $1314.1 - Low Feb 12 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 highs saw a dip back towards

$1302.5-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located only to bounce aggressively which is

less than ideal for bears. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to shift

focus back to 2018 highs and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3.

Bears now need a close below $1321.3 to ease pressure on key resistance layers.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) 55 & 100-DMAs Key 

*RES 4: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $61.82 - High Feb 8 

*RES 2: $60.67 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $59.53 - High Feb 13

*PRICE: $59.02 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $57.60 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $55.97 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $55.37 - Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs resulted in a sell-off that

sees immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to add

weight to the case for a move then targeting the 200-DMA ($53.20) although the

200-WMA ($55.97) may slow the move. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]