MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7867 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 2: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7884 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7807 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7773 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA was

aggressive although failure to gain traction on the marginal break of $0.7985

leaves the pair looking heavy. Bears look for a close below $0.7867 to shift

focus back to $0.7229-0.7807 where 100 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel base are

noted. Below $0.7729 shifts focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Above $0.7989 returns

focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7328

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7376 - High Feb 20

*PRICE: $0.7349 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7328 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 2: $0.7284 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7251 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: $0.7181 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 7mth highs lacked follow through Friday with the pair

looking offered as losses define the week. Bears continue to look for a close

below $0.7328 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below $0.7230 (Feb 12

low) to shift focus back to $0.7130-81 where 55 ($0.7181) & 200 ($0.7166) DMAs

are situated. Bulls now need a close above $0.7376 to gain breathing room and

above $0.7438 to target 2017 highs.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Below NZ$1.0700 To Confirm 100-WMA Break

*RES 4: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 3: NZ$1.0851 - 200-DMA, 21-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: NZ$1.0738 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the pair remaining capped ahead of

NZ$1.0780-1.0808. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.0808 to ease bearish pressure

and above NZ$1.0892 to hint at a move back to NZ$1.1073 and then 2017 highs

(NZ$1.1290). Bears look for a close below NZ$1.0700 to confirm a break of the

100-WMA (NZ$1.0725) and shift focus to NZ$1.0446-91 where the LT rising TL is

located.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Focused On Y81.50

*RES 4: Y86.60 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 2: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 1: Y84.89 - High Feb 14

*PRICE: Y84.55 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y84.16 - Hourly support Feb 19

*SUP 2: Y83.85 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 3: Y83.64 - 100-WMA

*SUP 4: Y83.32 - 2018 Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows sees immediate pressure back on Y84.89.

Bears take comfort in the Y84.89 level capping as bulls now need a close above

Y84.89 to gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus back to

Y86.60-87.50 where key DMAs are clustered. Bears currently focus on Y81.50 Apr

2017 monthly lows while Y84.89 caps with a close below the 100-WMA to add to

bearish confidence. O/S studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Correcting O/B Studies Weighing

*RES 4: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5865 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*RES 1: A$1.5700 - Highs Jan 19 & 20

*PRICE: A$1.5644 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 2: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*SUP 4: A$1.5463 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through defined Feb with fresh 2018 & 2yr

highs last week suffering the same fate. Daily studies correcting from O/B

remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below A$1.5601 to shift

initial focus to A$1.5461-1.5546 where the 55-DMA is situated. Overall below the

100-DMA (A$1.5383) targets 2018 lows (A$1.5152) and the 200-DMA (A$1.5140).

Bulls now need a close above A$1.5700 to gain breathing room.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: 90.124 - High Feb 14

*PRICE: 89.717 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The likely close above the 55-DMA (89.639) eases bearish pressure

with above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to

94.219-95.149. Initial support is noted at 89.442 with bears needing a close

below to signal a false break of the 55-DMA and return focus to 87.202-627 where

the weekly bear channel base and Dec 2014 monthly low are situated.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2167-1.2273 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2335 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2312 Daily Bull channel base off Jan 10 low 

*SUP 2: $1.2273 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: $1.2167 Low Jan 17

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees. Immediate focus is now on the break of

$1.2273 needed to confirm a break of the daily bull channel base. Overall focus

is on the break of $1.2167 to hint at a move back to $1.1915 and below $1.2089

to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1.2461 to gain breathing room and above

$1.2515 to retain focus on the weekly bear channel top.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: Y108.46 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14a

*PRICE: Y107.28 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.01 Hourly support Feb 20 

*SUP 2: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 4: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirmed significance supporting on fresh 2018

lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for a move to

Y99.08-101.15. Bulls now look for a close above the daily bear channel top off

2018 highs to hint at a correction back to Y110.47 and above Y109.79 to confirm.

Correcting O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y106.17) remain concerns for

bears who now need a close below Y106.42 to retain initial focus on Y105.50.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Shift Focus To 2018 High

*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 3: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 2: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.61 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*PRICE: Y132.34 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.88 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 2: Y131.51 2018 Low Feb 16 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y131.10 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on Y130.50-131.51 with a close below

Y130.50 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and hint at a move to Y125.80-127.54.

O/S daily studies are a concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y132.61

to gain breathing room and above Y133.78 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA

(Y133.63) and hint at a shift higher in focus. Above the 55-DMA (Y134.42) is

still needed to target 2018 highs although Y135.82 may slow the move.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Now On $1297.5-1310.7

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 1: $1335.5 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1330.0 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1310.7 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high

has resulted in breaks of key supports with bears gaining confidence and focus

now on $1297.5-1310.7 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close

below the 100-DMA to hint at a move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the

200-DMA ($1285.2) to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus

to $1367.3-1374.9.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) $60.57 Support Key Today 

*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6 

*RES 2: $62.85 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $61.68 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.77 - Low Feb 16 

*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls who are

looking for a close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs. Bears continue

to look for a close below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the $57.88 to

confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($58.24) & target the 200-DMA ($53.64). Bulls

need a close above the 21-DMA to add support to their case. Daily studies remain

well placed for gains.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]