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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
21 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7867 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2
*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16
*RES 2: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7884 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14
*SUP 2: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7807 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: $0.7773 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA was
aggressive although failure to gain traction on the marginal break of $0.7985
leaves the pair looking heavy. Bears look for a close below $0.7867 to shift
focus back to $0.7229-0.7807 where 100 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel base are
noted. Below $0.7729 shifts focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Above $0.7989 returns
focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.
KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7328
*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7376 - High Feb 20
*PRICE: $0.7349 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7328 - Hourly support Feb 14
*SUP 2: $0.7284 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7251 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: $0.7181 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 7mth highs lacked follow through Friday with the pair
looking offered as losses define the week. Bears continue to look for a close
below $0.7328 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below $0.7230 (Feb 12
low) to shift focus back to $0.7130-81 where 55 ($0.7181) & 200 ($0.7166) DMAs
are situated. Bulls now need a close above $0.7376 to gain breathing room and
above $0.7438 to target 2017 highs.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Below NZ$1.0700 To Confirm 100-WMA Break
*RES 4: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8
*RES 3: NZ$1.0851 - 200-DMA, 21-DMA
*RES 2: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14
*RES 1: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14
*PRICE: NZ$1.0738 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - 2018 Low Feb 16
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the pair remaining capped ahead of
NZ$1.0780-1.0808. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.0808 to ease bearish pressure
and above NZ$1.0892 to hint at a move back to NZ$1.1073 and then 2017 highs
(NZ$1.1290). Bears look for a close below NZ$1.0700 to confirm a break of the
100-WMA (NZ$1.0725) and shift focus to NZ$1.0446-91 where the LT rising TL is
located.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Focused On Y81.50
*RES 4: Y86.60 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7
*RES 2: Y85.59 - High Feb 13
*RES 1: Y84.89 - High Feb 14
*PRICE: Y84.55 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y84.16 - Hourly support Feb 19
*SUP 2: Y83.85 - Hourly support Feb 14
*SUP 3: Y83.64 - 100-WMA
*SUP 4: Y83.32 - 2018 Low Feb 14
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows sees immediate pressure back on Y84.89.
Bears take comfort in the Y84.89 level capping as bulls now need a close above
Y84.89 to gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus back to
Y86.60-87.50 where key DMAs are clustered. Bears currently focus on Y81.50 Apr
2017 monthly lows while Y84.89 caps with a close below the 100-WMA to add to
bearish confidence. O/S studies remain a concern for bears.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Correcting O/B Studies Weighing
*RES 4: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016
*RES 3: A$1.5865 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 2: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14
*RES 1: A$1.5700 - Highs Jan 19 & 20
*PRICE: A$1.5644 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13
*SUP 2: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2
*SUP 3: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25
*SUP 4: A$1.5463 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through defined Feb with fresh 2018 & 2yr
highs last week suffering the same fate. Daily studies correcting from O/B
remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below A$1.5601 to shift
initial focus to A$1.5461-1.5546 where the 55-DMA is situated. Overall below the
100-DMA (A$1.5383) targets 2018 lows (A$1.5152) and the 200-DMA (A$1.5140).
Bulls now need a close above A$1.5700 to gain breathing room.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance
*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18
*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8
*RES 1: 90.124 - High Feb 14
*PRICE: 89.717 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support
*COMMENTARY: The likely close above the 55-DMA (89.639) eases bearish pressure
with above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to
94.219-95.149. Initial support is noted at 89.442 with bears needing a close
below to signal a false break of the 55-DMA and return focus to 87.202-627 where
the weekly bear channel base and Dec 2014 monthly low are situated.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2167-1.2273 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1.2335 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2312 Daily Bull channel base off Jan 10 low
*SUP 2: $1.2273 Low Feb 14
*SUP 3: $1.2205 Low Feb 9
*SUP 4: $1.2167 Low Jan 17
*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel
top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees. Immediate focus is now on the break of
$1.2273 needed to confirm a break of the daily bull channel base. Overall focus
is on the break of $1.2167 to hint at a move back to $1.1915 and below $1.2089
to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1.2461 to gain breathing room and above
$1.2515 to retain focus on the weekly bear channel top.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top
*RES 4: Y108.46 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance
*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 1: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14a
*PRICE: Y107.28 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y107.01 Hourly support Feb 20
*SUP 2: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19
*SUP 3: Y106.10 Low Feb 19
*SUP 4: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support
*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirmed significance supporting on fresh 2018
lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for a move to
Y99.08-101.15. Bulls now look for a close above the daily bear channel top off
2018 highs to hint at a correction back to Y110.47 and above Y109.79 to confirm.
Correcting O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y106.17) remain concerns for
bears who now need a close below Y106.42 to retain initial focus on Y105.50.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Shift Focus To 2018 High
*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 3: Y133.78 High Feb 13
*RES 2: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance
*RES 1: Y132.61 Hourly resistance Feb 16
*PRICE: Y132.34 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.88 Low Feb 19
*SUP 2: Y131.51 2018 Low Feb 16
*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20
*SUP 4: Y131.10 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on Y130.50-131.51 with a close below
Y130.50 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and hint at a move to Y125.80-127.54.
O/S daily studies are a concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y132.61
to gain breathing room and above Y133.78 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA
(Y133.63) and hint at a shift higher in focus. Above the 55-DMA (Y134.42) is
still needed to target 2018 highs although Y135.82 may slow the move.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Now On $1297.5-1310.7
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16
*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1335.5 - Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1330.0 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14
*SUP 2: $1310.7 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high
has resulted in breaks of key supports with bears gaining confidence and focus
now on $1297.5-1310.7 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close
below the 100-DMA to hint at a move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the
200-DMA ($1285.2) to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus
to $1367.3-1374.9.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) $60.57 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5
*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6
*RES 2: $62.85 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance
*PRICE: $61.68 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $60.77 - Low Feb 16
*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support
*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls who are
looking for a close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs. Bears continue
to look for a close below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the $57.88 to
confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($58.24) & target the 200-DMA ($53.64). Bulls
need a close above the 21-DMA to add support to their case. Daily studies remain
well placed for gains.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.