MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7729-79 Support Region Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7879 - Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7840 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7779 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.7867 last week sees initial focus on $0.7229-0.7779

where 100 & 200-DMAs are located although follow through has been lacking. Bears

continue to look for a close below $0.7729 to end bullish hopes and shift focus

to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls still need a close above $0.7879 to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7989 to return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are

noted.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.7130 Support Key This Week, Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 1: $0.7317 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7289 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7270 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 2: $0.7211 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7171 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the aggressive sell-off Friday and close

below the 21-DMA. Bears now need a close below the daily bull channel base to

shift focus back to $0.7130-0.7211 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bulls now

look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $0.7438 2018

highs to target 2017 highs ($0.7558).

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Focus On NZ$1.0458-91 While NZ$1.0780 Caps

*RES 4: NZ$1.0846 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.0771 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0748 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2018 lows combined with correcting

O/S studies is less than ideal for bears who are focused on NZ$1.0458-91 where

the LT rising TL is located. Layers of resistance remain in place with bulls

still needing a close above NZ$1.0780 to gain breathing room and target a

correction back to NZ$1.0846-1.0899 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 100-WMA

*RES 4: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 3: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 2: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 1: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.72 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.27 - 2018 Low Feb 23

*SUP 2: Y82.56 - Low June 8

*SUP 3: Y81.76 - Lows May 18 & June 6 2017

*SUP 4: Y81.49 - 2017 Low Apr 19

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows saw pressure back on Y84.89. Bears take

comfort in the Y84.89 level capping with bulls needing a close above Y84.89 to

gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus back to Y86.59-87.45 where

key DMAs are clustered. Bears currently focus on Y81.50 Apr 2017 monthly lows

while Y84.89 caps with a close below the 100-WMA (Y83.60) to add to bearish

confidence. O/S studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5598

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5875 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*PRICE: A$1.5682 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5667 - Hourly support Feb 21 

*SUP 2: A$1.5638 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through has defined Feb with fresh 2018 &

2yr highs suffering the same fate. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to

gain breathing room and below A$1.5598 to shift initial focus to A$1.5465-1.5566

where the 55-DMA is situated. Overall below A$1.5390 now targets 2018 lows

(A$1.5152) and the 200-DMA (A$1.5152). Bulls need a close above A$1.5816 to

confirm focus on A$1.5968-1.6250.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.442 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: 90.235 - High Feb 22

*PRICE: 89.883 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA (89.512) eased bearish pressure with

above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to

94.219-95.149. The lack of follow through is less than ideal with bears needing

a close below 89.442 to signal a false break of the 21-DMA, return initial focus

to 2018 lows and overall focus to 86.515-878 where the weekly bear channel base,

Nov 2014 monthly low LT rising weekly TL are situated.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2295 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2652) off 2008 highs sees immediate focus on the $1.2092-1.2205 support

region. Below $1.2092 is needed to end bullish hopes and initially target

$1.1915-78 where the 100-DMA is located. Layers of resistance are weighing with

bulls needing a close above $1.2372 to gain breathing room and above $1.2461 to

shift focus to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.03-42 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.09 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.15 Hourly support Feb 22

*PRICE: Y106.84 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19 

*SUP 2: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and Y105.50 stalled ahead of Y108.03-42

and retains focus on the Y105.50 support. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y105.50 to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. The Y108.03-42 resistance

region remains key. Bulls need a close above Y108.42 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and bear channel top, hinting at a correction to Y110.47 and above

Y109.78 to confirm. Correcting O/S daily studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Close Below Y130.59 To Target Y127.54-129.34

*RES 4: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.78 Hourly resistance Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.06 Hourly resistance Feb 22

*PRICE: Y131.37 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.91 2018 Low Feb 23 

*SUP 2: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 3: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The pair is flirting with the 200-DMA (Y131.22) as the correction

lower from 2018 highs continues to result in fresh 2018 lows. Bears now look for

a close below Y130.59 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift initial focus

to Y127.54-129.34 where monthly lows are noted. Bulls now need a close above

Y132.06 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA (Y134.29) to target 2018

highs (Y137.50). Very O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Close Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 1: $1335.0 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1328.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1313.3 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high

resulted in breaks of key supports with bears focused on $1298.5-1313.3 where 55

& 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a

move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the 200-DMA ($1285.6) to confirm.

Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $1251.3

to return focus to $1367.3-1374.9.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $63.93 To Target $66.39-65 

*RES 4: $66.65 - 2018 High Jan 22 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 1: $63.94 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: $63.55 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $63.09 - High Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 2: $62.12 - Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The $60.57 support confirmed significance with the bounce from

ahead seeing the contract gain traction above the 21-DMA ($62.66). Bulls look

for a close above $63.93 to confirm a shift in focus to $66.39-65 where 2018

highs are situated. Support layers are following J18 higher with bears now

needing a close below $63.09 to gain breathing room and below $60.57 to shift

focus back to $57.90-58.27 where the 100-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]