MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

7 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Now On $0.7838-0.7910

*RES 4: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 3: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 2: $0.7874 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7838 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7822 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7788 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble $0.7694 and the lack of follow through on

approach remains a concern for bears and likely sees a close above the 200-DMA

today with focus now on $0.7838-0.7910. Bulls still need a close above $0.7910

to shift initial focus to $0.7989 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Bears

now look for a close below the 200-DMA to ease renewed bullish pressure. Daily

studies are well placed for gains.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.7385 Resistance Now The Focus

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26

*PRICE: $0.7295 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7252 - Hourly resistance Mar 6 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7219 - Low Mar 6

*SUP 3: $0.7176 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: A bullish key day reversal emerged after the bounce from ahead of

the 200-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above $0.7385 to target $0.7438-0.7558

where 2018 & 2017 highs are situated. Layers of support are accumulating as

daily studies correct from modestly O/S. Bears now need a close below $0.7252 to

ease renewed bullish pressure and below $0.7219 to return focus to the 200-DMA.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0776 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: NZ$1.0874 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0851 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0831 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0776 - High Mar 1

*PRICE: NZ$1.0714 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure last week ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs

resulted in an aggressive sell-off and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears

look for a close below NZ$1.0650 to add weight to the case for a test of

NZ$1.0458-91 where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls now need a

close above NZ$1.0776 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y83.32

*RES 4: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y84.07 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y83.80 - High Feb 28 

*RES 1: Y83.32 - High Mar 6

*PRICE: Y82.86 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.69 - Hourly support Mar 6

*SUP 2: Y82.15 - Low Mar 6

*SUP 3: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 8mth lows lacked follow through this week leaving a double

daily bottom in place with the Bollinger base and O/S daily studies key

concerns. Topside follow through is a little lacking with bulls now needing a

close above Y83.32 to gain breathing room and above Y84.89 to target key DMAs

clustered Y86.45-58. Bears now need a close below Y82.15 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5817

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5959 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5937 - 2018 High Mar 5

*PRICE: A$1.5857 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5817 - High Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading within a A$1.5598-1.5816 range came to an end with

a break higher Friday & fresh 2018 and 2+year highs again Monday. Bulls shift

focus to A$1.6250 2016 highs with daily studies being well placed for gains. The

Bollinger top (A$1.5864) remains the key concern for bulls. Bears continue to

look for a close below A$1.5817 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below

A$1.5697 to shift focus back to A$1.5598.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 89.442 Targets 2018 Low

*RES 4: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 2: 90.293 - High Mar 2 

*RES 1: 89.829 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 89.579 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance

left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting

initial focus to 89.442. A close below 89.442 remains needed to shift immediate

focus back to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and the Bollinger top (90.839)

remain concerns for bulls who need a close above 91.011 to initially pressure

91.751.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2320

*RES 4: $1.2604 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2479 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*PRICE: $1.2407 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2364 High Mar 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2320 Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 4: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2212) now

sees immediate pressure on the $1.2435 resistance. Bulls look for a close above

this level needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs and overall focus to the

weekly bear channel top off 2008 highs. Support layers accumulating adds to

bullish confidence with bears now needing a close below $1.2320 to ease bullish

pressure and return focus to $1.2092-1.2153.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.54 Resistance Remains Key Today

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.27 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.13 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.83 Low Mar 6 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y105.04 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking

heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 & 15mth lows. Follow through has been

lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers are

accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y106.54 to gain breathing

room. Above Y108.03 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a

correction to Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y134.07 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.49 100-DMA

*RES 2: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.23 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.68 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.24 Hourly support Mar 6 

*SUP 2: Y130.58 Low Mar 6 

*SUP 3: Y129.57 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6mth lows lacked follow through with the recovery now

seeing the pair flirting with the 200-DMA (Y131.41). Bulls look for a close

above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift initial

focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Key support is now

noted at 130.58 with bears needing a close below to retain focus 55 & 200-WMAs.

Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Returns To $1351.3

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 2: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1340.7 - High Feb 26

*PRICE: $1335.7 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1328.8 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1300.9 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the

Bollinger base ($1305.9) now sees a close above the 21-DMA and $1330.1

resistance with immediate focus back on $1351.3. Bulls need a close above this

level to initially focus on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Bears now

look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $1312.9 to

pressure the 100-DMA.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bulls Initially Focused On $64.24-96 

*RES 4: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 2: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $62.60 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $61.86 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $61.69 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $61.10 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $60.13 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: A lack of follow through on dips back to $60.13 has provided the

impetus for closes above 21 & 55 DMAs and seen focus return to $64.24-97. Bulls

now need a close above this region to return initial focus to $66.39-65 where

2018 highs are noted. Bears now need a close below $61.10 to confirm breaks of

21 & 55-DMAs and return focus to $57.90-59.59 where the 100-DMA and bull channel

base are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]