MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $0.7910

*RES 4: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 3: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 2: $0.7878 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7842 - High Mar 6

*PRICE: $0.7824 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7769 - Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble $0.7694 and the lack of follow through on

approach remains a concern for bears and saw a close above the 200-DMA with

focus now on $0.7842-0.7910. Bulls still need a close above $0.7910 to shift

initial focus to $0.7989 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Bears now look

for a close below $0.7753 to ease renewed bullish pressure. Daily studies are

well placed for gains.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.7385 Resistance Now The Focus

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26

*PRICE: $0.7287 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7252 - Hourly resistance Mar 6 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7219 - Low Mar 6

*SUP 3: $0.7178 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: A bullish key day reversal emerged after the bounce from ahead of

the 200-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7385 to target

$0.7438-0.7558 where 2018 & 2017 highs are situated. Layers of support are

accumulating as daily studies correct from modestly O/S. Bears now need a close

below $0.7252 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $0.7219 to return focus

to the 200-DMA.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0776 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: NZ$1.0871 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0853 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0831 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0776 - High Mar 1

*PRICE: NZ$1.0734 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure last week ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs

resulted in an aggressive sell-off and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears

look for a close below NZ$1.0650 to add weight to the case for a test of

NZ$1.0458-91 where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls still need a

close above NZ$1.0776 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y83.32

*RES 4: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.91 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y83.80 - High Feb 28 

*RES 1: Y83.32 - High Mar 6

*PRICE: Y83.03 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.03 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 2: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*SUP 3: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 4: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 8mth lows lacked follow through this week leaving a double

daily bottom in place with the Bollinger base and O/S daily studies key

concerns. Topside follow through is a little lacking with bulls still needing a

close above Y83.32 to gain breathing room and above Y84.89 to target key DMAs

clustered Y86.35-59. Bears now need a close below Y82.03 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5817

*RES 4: A$1.6558 - Weekly Bull channel top

*RES 3: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 2: A$1.6170 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 1: A$1.5976 - 2018 High Mar 5

*PRICE: A$1.5857 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5817 - High Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs continue but follow through is lacking

courtesy of daily and weekly Bollinger band tops. Bears continue to look for a

close below A$1.5817 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below A$1.5697 to

shift focus back to A$1.5598. While A$1.5817 supports bulls initially focus on

A$1.6170-1.6250 where the daily bull channel top is located with overall focus

on the weekly bull channel top.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 2: 90.293 - High Mar 2 

*RES 1: 89.831 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 89.588 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.431 - Low Mar 6

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance

left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting

initial focus to 89.442. The break of 89.442 has lacked follow through but bears

now shift focus to retests of 2018 lows. The 21-DMA is initial resistance with

bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure. A close above 91.011

remains needed to initially pressure 91.751.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2320

*RES 4: $1.2640 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2482 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2444 High Mar 7

*PRICE: $1.2409 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2364 High Mar 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2320 Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 4: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2222)

resulted in a pop above the $1.2435 resistance. Bulls now look for a close above

$1.2444 to confirm initial focus on 2018 highs and overall focus to the weekly

bear channel top off 2008 highs. Support layers accumulating adds to bullish

confidence with bears needing a close below $1.2320 to ease bullish pressure and

return focus to $1.2092-1.2153.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.19 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 2: Y107.11 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.16 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y105.02 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking

heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 & 15mth lows. Follow through has been

lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers are

accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above Y107.19 to ease bearish

pressure. Above Y108.03 is needed to hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with

above Y108.42 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y134.02 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.48 100-DMA

*RES 2: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.05 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.70 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.58 Low Mar 6 

*SUP 2: Y129.57 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.68 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6mth lows lacked follow through with the recovery

seeing the pair flirting with the 200-DMA (Y131.44). Bulls now look for a close

above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are situated. Above Y134.16 is needed to target 2018 highs. Key support is now

noted at 130.58 with bears needing a close below to retain focus 55 & 200-WMAs.

Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Failure Weighing

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 2: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1340.7 - High Feb 26

*PRICE: $1324.6 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1301.3 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1288.2 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 21-DMA has been brief with the correction

lower Wednesday leaving gold looking a little heavy. Bears now look for a close

below $1312.9 to confirm a return in focus to $1288.12-1302.5 where 100 &

200-DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1351.3 to

initially focus on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 2: $62.78 - Hourly resistance Mar 6 

*RES 1: $61.65 - Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance

*PRICE: $61.36 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.58 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 2: $60.13 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: $59.48 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $59.14 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to chop around 21 & 55-DMAs this week with

follow through lacking in both directions. Layers of support remain $59.14-60.13

where the daily bull channel base and 100-DMA are noted. Bears need a close

below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to $53.30-55.37 with below $57.90 to

confirm. Bulls look for a close above $64.24 to hint at a move back to $66.39-65

and above $64.97 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]