MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

6 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7810 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7807 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7732 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7681 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7662 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 2: $0.7630 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7589 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of key DMAs $0.7732-0.7834 remain a concern for

bulls. Overall bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and

shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Momentum

has corrected to more neutral levels but the Slow Stochastic remains very O/S

with bears now needing a close below the 100-WMA to reconfirm focus on

$0.7500-80. Below $0.7500 initially targets $0.7319.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.7243 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 1: $0.7322 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: $0.7276 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7256 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.7243 - Hourly support Apr 3

*SUP 3: $0.7181 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7169 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.7315 has so far lacked follow through which is less

than ideal as bulls now look for a close above $0.7322 to confirm focus on 2018

highs. A close above $0.7354 is needed to add support to the case. Bulls take

comfort in support emerging around the 21-DMA and bears now need a close below

$0.7243 to confirm a break and shift initial focus back to $0.7130-81 where key

DMA and WMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0669 To Target 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*RES 3: NZ$1.0652 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0601 - Low Apr 2 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0576 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: NZ$1.0560 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0522 - 2018 Low Apr 5

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0468 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth lows reconfirm immediate bearish focus on the LT

rising daily TL off 2015 lows coming in around NZ$1.0469 today with a close

below then targeting NZ$1.0367 June lows. Accumulating resistance layers add

weight to the bearish case with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0601 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0669 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

and initially target the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0747).

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y82.70

*RES 4: Y84.06 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.50 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.16 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: Y81.93 - Hourly support Apr 4

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 & 18mth lows has seen the pair work

its way back towards the Y82.70 resistance. Bulls look for a close above Y82.70

to hint at a move back to Y84.06-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm. Initial

support is now noted at the 21-DMA but bears look for a close below Y81.93 to

signal a false break of the 21-DMA and to return initial focus to retests of

2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On A$1.5795-1.5856

*RES 4: A$1.6191 - 2018 High Mar 28

*RES 3: A$1.6117 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 1: A$1.5991 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: A$1.5921 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5893 - Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5823 - Daily Bull channel base off Jan 29 low 

*SUP 4: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's 2018 & 2+yr highs

sees the pair flirting with the 21-DMA (A$1.5925) and focus on A$1.5795-1.5856

where the daily bull channel base is located. Bears now look for a close below

A$1.5795 to target A$1.5598-1.5688. Bulls now look for a close above A$1.5991 to

gain breathing room and above A$1.6117 to reconfirm focus on A$1.6191-1.6299

where 2018 highs and bull channel top are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Shifts To 91.011-751

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.169 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.610 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 90.436 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 90.260 - Hourly support Apr 5

*SUP 2: 89.930 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.789 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the break of 88.960 has seen the 90.445

resistance taken out and bullish focus shifted to 91.011-751 where the 100-DMA

is noted. Bulls now look for a close above 91.751 to target 92.426-997 where the

200-DMA (92.426) is found. Bears now look for a close below 90.260 to gain

breathing room and below 89.633 to return focus to tests of 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2371 To ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 2: $1.2336 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2290 Hourly resistance Apr 4

*PRICE: $1.2238 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2216 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2017 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears gain confidence with a dip below the bull channel base off

Nov lows although follow through has been lacking courtesy of the Bollinger base

($1.2212). Bears now focus on $1.2092-1.2153 where the 100-DMA ($1.2150) is

noted. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a

close above $1.2371 to gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to retain focus on

$1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bullish Confidence Grows

*RES 4: Y109.79 High Feb 8 

*RES 3: Y109.51 100-WMA 

*RES 2: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Y107.40 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.15 Hourly resistance Apr 5 now support 

*SUP 2: Y106.69 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips has resulted in a close above the 55-DMA

(Y107.28) the first since early Jan. Bulls now shift immediate focus to

Y108.03-42 and overall focus to Y109.29-110.63 where key DMA and WMAs are

situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is the key concern for bulls. Bears now

look for a close below Y107.15 to gain breathing room and below Y106.69 to shift

initial focus back to Y105.29.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y128.94 Targets Y125.80-127.54

*RES 4: Y133.06 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y132.42 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.12 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.43 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.39 200-WMA, 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and

capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA key topside. Bulls need a close

above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018 highs

with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 to start the

new week with bears needing a close below to return focus to Y128.94-129.39

where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below 200-DMA To End Bullish Hopes

*RES 4: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 3: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 2: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1332.1 - Hourly support Apr 5 now resistance

*PRICE: $1326.1 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $1311.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1294.7 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through remains lacking on approach to the $1350 level with

gold looking a little offered and pressuring $1318.3 following the break of

$1328.3. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to confirm focus on the

200-DMA. Below the 200-DMA is needed to target 1234.1 where the 200-WMA is

located. Bulls now need a close above $1356.7 to confirm initial focus on

$1366.7-1374.9.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Support Building 

*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.12 - High Apr 4

*PRICE: $63.73 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $63.07 - Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: $62.69 - Hourly resistance Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 3: $62.06 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 4: $60.84 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 21 ($63.07) & 55 ($62.75) DMAs resulted in a dip below

Wednesday only to be aggressively reversed. The break of $63.86 has so far

lacked follow through as bulls continue to look for a close above $65.42 to

target 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below $62.69 to confirm breaks of

21 & 55-DMAs and shift focus to $59.91-60.84 where the 100-DMA and a bull

channel base are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]