MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7811 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7794 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7716 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7694 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7634 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7586 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of key DMAs $0.7716-0.7823 remain a concern for

bulls. Overall bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Momentum has

corrected to more neutral levels. In saying that, bears look for a close below

$0.7630 to confirm a break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.

Below $0.7500 initially targets $0.7319.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7241

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 1: $0.7324 - High Apr 6

*PRICE: $0.7306 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7241 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 2: $0.7181 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7178 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21, 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside breaks continue to lack follow through but bulls maintain

an advantage while $0.7241 supports. Bears need a close below $0.7241 to confirm

traction below the 21-DMA ($0.7257) and shift focus back to the $0.7130-81

region where key DMA & WMAs are noted. Bulls now need a close above $0.7354 to

gain traction topside and initially target 2018 highs ($0.7436). The Bollinger

top ($0.7340) remains a concern for bulls.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0669 To Target 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 3: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.0628 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0608 - High Apr 6

*PRICE: NZ$1.0530 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0501 - 2018 Low Apr 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0468 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth lows reconfirm immediate bearish focus on the LT

rising daily TL off 2015 lows with a close below then targeting NZ$1.0367 June

lows. Follow through has been lacking Monday courtesy of the Bollinger base

(NZ$1.0504). In saying that, bulls need a close above NZ$1.0608 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0669 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

and initially target the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0733).

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y81.87 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.82 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.14 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 2: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 3: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 & 18mth lows has seen the pair work

its way back towards the Y82.70 resistance. Bulls still look for a close above

Y82.70 to hint at a move back to Y84.51-89 with above the 55-DMA now to confirm.

Initial support is now noted at Friday's low with bears needing a close below to

confirm a break back below the 21-DMA and return initial focus to retests of

2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above A$1.6117 To Initially Target A$1.6191-1.6323

*RES 4: A$1.6191 - 2018 High Mar 28

*RES 3: A$1.6117 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 1: A$1.6060 - High Apr 9

*PRICE: A$1.6002 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5893 - Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: A$1.5859 - Daily Bull channel base off Jan 29 low 

*SUP 3: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 2+yr highs sees the

pair flirting with the 21-DMA (A$1.5960) as focus returned to A$1.5773-1.5859

where the 55-DMA and bull channel base are located. Bulls take comfort in

Friday's bounce but still need a close above A$1.6117 to reconfirm focus on

A$1.6191-1.6323 where 2018 highs and bull channel top are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressure Back On 55-DMA

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.959 - Hourly resistance Apr 9

*PRICE: 90.840 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 89.771 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 3: 89.633 - High Mar 27 now support

*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges remains lacking with the

topside break failure seeing pressure back on the 89.633-771 region where the

55-DMA is noted. Bears continue to look for a close below 89.633 to confirm

breaks of DMAs and return focus to tests of 2018 lows. Bulls maintain the

advantage while 89.633 supports but now need a close above 90.273 to return

pressure to 90.597.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2371

*RES 4: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 1: $1.2338 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2318 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2307 Hourly support Apr 9 

*SUP 2: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2209 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the bull channel base last week lacked follow through

with bears now looking for a close below $1.2209 to confirm initial focus on

$1.2092-1.2162 where the 100-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern

for bears ($1.2220) and limits follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.2371

to gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to focus on $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT

bear channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.49 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.49 High Apr 5 

*RES 1: Y107.13 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y106.78 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.24 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: Y104.35 LT Rising TL off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA Thursday

with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. A close below the 21-DMA is

now needed to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is

key. Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03-42 with a close

above this region to target Y109.29-110.56 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.

Daily studies approaching O/B is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 3: Y132.20 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.15 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.99 High Apr 9

*PRICE: Y131.53 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.60 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and capped ahead of

the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.05) key topside. Bulls need a close above the

100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018 highs with a close

above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 last week with bears

still needing a close below this level to return focus to Y128.94-129.60 where

WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1356.7 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 1: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $1335.9 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1312.5 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with bears

needing a close below to add to confidence and below the 100-DMA to confirm

focus on tests of the 200-DMA. Gains Monday provided bulls breathing room but

the $1356.7 resistance is key this week with bulls needing a close above to

confirm initial focus on $1366.7-1374.9.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bulls Need Close Above $64.12 

*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.12 - High Apr 4

*PRICE: $63.42 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $63.22 - Hourly support Apr 9 

*SUP 2: $62.43 - Hourly resistance Apr 9 now support 

*SUP 3: $61.81 - Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $60.95 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week is less than ideal for bears who

look for a close below the 100-DMA to initially pressure $59.18-91 and then the

$57.60 Feb low. The $64.12 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a

close above to gain breathing room and above $65.42 to target 2018 highs. While

$64.12 caps bears retain the upper hand.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]