MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7490

*RES 4: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 3: $0.7560 - High May 4

*RES 2: $0.7490 - Hourly support May 8 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7472 - High May 9

*PRICE: $0.7462 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7333 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows continue although the lack of follow through

is a concern when combined with correcting O/S studies and daily Momentum

divergence. In saying that, bulls now need a close above $0.7490 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7640 to shift initial focus to $0.7694-0.7735 where

the 55-DMA is located. Bears currently focus on $0.7326 June lows while $0.7490

caps.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6996

*RES 4: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 

*RES 3: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 1: $0.6996 - High May 9

*PRICE: $0.6945 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to manage the close above $0.7052 needed to ease

bearish pressure with fresh 2018 & 5mth lows adding weight to the case for a

move currently targeting $0.6779-0.6815 where Nov & Dec lows are situated.

Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close

above $0.6996 to gain breathing room and above $0.7052 to hint at a correction

back to $0.7155-0.7198 with the 200-DMA at $0.7155.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Focused On NZ$1.0762-1.0894

*RES 4: NZ$1.0804 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0774 - 21-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0768 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0752 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0697 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0663 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a close below NZ$1.0697 to gain breathing

room and below NZ$1.0655 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and to shift initial

focus back to NZ$1.0601. While NZ$1.0697 supports bulls hold the advantage with

focus currently on NZ$1.0762-1.0894 where key DMAs, WMAs and the bear channel

top are situated.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 

*RES 3: Y82.55 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y82.53 - High May 1 

*RES 1: Y82.00 - High May 9

*PRICE: Y81.85 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*SUP 2: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 3: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Tuesday's relatively bearish close is

less than ideal for bears as daily studies correct from modestly O/S levels. The

Y82.00 resistance is key today with bulls now needing a close above to gain

breathing room. Bulls then need a close above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

Y83.94-84.06. Bears currently focus on the break of Y80.24 needed to shift

immediate focus to Y76.78 Nov 2016 monthly lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.6140 - High Apr 25

*RES 3: A$1.6098 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance, High Apr 30

*RES 1: A$1.5953 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5983 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5830 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 

*SUP 3: A$1.5713 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 Low 

*SUP 4: A$1.5710 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far sees the pair flirting

with the bull channel base (A$1.5894) off 2018 lows and focus now on the

A$1.5619-1.5771 support region where the weekly bull channel base, 100-DMA and

21-WMA are noted. Daily studies now at O/S levels are a concern for bears. Bulls

now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.6056 to

target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.750 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 93.416 - 2018 High May 9 

*RES 1: 93.200 - Hourly resistance May 9

*PRICE: 93.111 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.654 - Low May 8

*SUP 2: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 3: 91.959 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: After a few days consolidation bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 &

5mth highs with the index now flirting with the 55-WMA (93.159). Bulls look for

a close above current 2018 highs to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA. O/B

studies remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 92.654 to

gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to the 200-DMA.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7

*RES 1: $1.1897 Hourly resistance May 8

*PRICE: $1.1848 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1827 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5mth lows continue with immediate pressure on

$1.1815-27 where the 55-WMA is located. Bears look for a close below $1.1815 to

initially pressure $1.1690-1.1716. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for

bears but at present bears dominate as layers of resistance build. Bulls now

look for a close above $1.1897 to gain breathing room and above $1.2053 to shift

initial focus back to $1.2144-1.2294.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below Y108.54

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.49 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.19 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.71 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 2: Y108.63 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.57 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips to the 100-DMA with

gains seeing focus on Y110.02-49 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are. Bulls need a

close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98. Bears again look

for a close below Y108.54 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears

targeting 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressuring 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y131.74 21-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 2: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.17 Hourly resistance May 9

*PRICE: Y130.00 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 3: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18 

*SUP 4: Y125.94 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined for the pair last week with immediate bearish focus

now on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows this week to initially

target the bear channel base around Y126.02. O/S daily studies are the key

concern for bears as pressure currently weighs on the 200-WMA. Bulls now need a

close above Y130.66 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to

Y131.74-132.54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1326.6 - High Apr 16, 21 & 55-DMAs 

*RES 2: $1324.9 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1318.9 - High May 7

*PRICE: $1312.4 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.5 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 3: $1292.2 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gold continues to flirt with the 200-DMA ($1305.5) with bears

needing a close below 2018 lows to confirm traction below and add weight to the

case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low ($1235.9). The $1332.6

resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close above $1318.9 to gain

breathing room and above $1332.6 to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where

2018 highs are found.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On Channel Top

*RES 4: $74.16 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $71.80 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $71.36 - 2018 High May 9

*PRICE: $71.14 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $70.46 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $68.34 - Hourly support May 8

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off was short lived and aggressively reversed

resulting in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs once again with bulls currently focused on

the daily bull channel top. Support layers building add to bullish confidence.

Bears now need a close below $70.46 to gain breathing room and below $69.12 to

hint at a correction back towards $66.85-67.63. A close below $66.85 is needed

to shift focus to $64.10-65.59.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]