MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7669 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*RES 1: $0.7543 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7512 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA resulted in an aggressive break of

the $0.7472-0.7519 support region that sees immediate focus back on tests of

2018 lows. A close below current 2018 lows would confirm focus on the $0.7326-68

region where May & June 17 lows are noted. Daily studies are well placed for a

fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7589 to shift initial focus back to $0.7648.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6952

*RES 4: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 3: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 2: $0.6952 - Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6924 - High May 15

*PRICE: $0.6894 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 2: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Wednesday which is less than

ideal for bears given daily studies lingering at O/S levels. Bears currently

focus on tests of Nov & Dec lows. Resistance layers are again accumulating and

adding to bearish confidence. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.6952

to gain breathing room and above $0.6996 to shift initial focus to $0.7052.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above NZ$1.0900

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0900 - Highs May 15 & 16

*PRICE: NZ$1.0894 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0806 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0763 - 100-DMA, 200-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 55-DMA resulting in weekly closes above the 55, 21 (NZ$1.0774) &

200-WMAs. Continued marginal closes above the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0882) add support to

the case for a test of 2018 highs with a close above NZ$1.0900 now needed. Bears

need a close below NZ$1.0843 to gain breathing room and below NZ$1.0762 to shift

focus back to NZ$1.0655-1.0697 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus Back On Y83.79-84.51

*RES 4: Y84.06 - High Apr 13 

*RES 3: Y83.94 - High Apr 19 

*RES 2: Y83.79 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y83.15 - High Apr 20

*PRICE: Y82.91 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.58 - Hourly resistance May 16 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.16 - Low May 16

*SUP 3: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 4: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards Y82.00 provided the impetus

for a close above Y82.78 Wednesday, shifting initial focus to Y83.15 and overall

focus to Y83.79-84.51 where key DMA and WMAs are situated. Support layers

building add to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below Y82.58 to gain

breathing room and below Y82.00 to reconfirm focus on Y80.51-81.13 where 2018

lows are situated.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above A$1.5771

*RES 4: A$1.5923 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: A$1.5918 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 1: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5708 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20 

*SUP 3: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far has resulted in a close

below the 100-DMA (A$1.5731) with immediate pressure on A$1.5688. Overall bears

need a close below A$1.5919 t shift initial focus to A$1.5458-95 where the

200-DMA (A$1.5458) is located. O/S studies are the key concern for bears. Bulls

now need a close above A$1.5771 to gain breathing room and above A$1.5967 to

confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and to target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused on 200-WMA

*RES 4: 94.720 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.111 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 93.632 - 2018 High May 16

*PRICE: 93.339 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 2: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 92.551 - Hourly support May 14

*SUP 4: 92.223 - Low May 2

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 200-DMA provided the

impetus for fresh 2018 highs with bulls now focused on 94.219-720 where the

200-WMA is noted. O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 92.841 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA (91.949) to hint at

a move back to 90.549-666 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1889

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1824 Hourly support May 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1805 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1761 2018 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.1699 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead of

this region. The sell-off that followed has resulted in fresh 2018 lows with

bears now initially focused on $1.1690-1.1716 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now

lows. Bulls look for a close above $1.1889 to gain breathing room and target a

correction back to $1.2013-53 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y110.02

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: Y110.46 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y110.35 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 3: Y109.13 Low May 11 

*SUP 4: Y108.53 Low Apr 24

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips provided the impetus for closes above the

200-DMA (Y110.18) with the pair hesitating around the 55-WMA. Bulls look for a

close above the 55-WMA to shift immediate focus to Y111.22-98 and overall focus

to the 200-WMA (Y112.97). Bears still need a close below Y110.02 to gain

breathing room and below the 100-DMA (Y108.41) to shift initial focus back to

Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Focused On 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 3: Y131.30 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.25 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y130.58 Hourly resistance May 16

*PRICE: Y130.35 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y129.91 lacked follow through Wednesday which is less

than ideal for bears given daily studies correcting from O/S. Y131.37 is now key

resistance with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above

the 100-DMA (Y132.58) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While Y131.37 caps bears

initially focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to target the daily bear

channel base around Y132.59 today.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1317.4 - Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1306.5 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $1290.2 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1286.2 - 2018 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.4 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection around key DMAs Friday has resulted in fresh 2018

lows and closes below the 55-WMA ($1297.7) and 200-DMA with bears initially

focused on $1268.9-1277.7 where the 100-WMA is situated. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake

with bulls now needing a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.26

*RES 4: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.23 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $71.92 - 2018 High May 11

*PRICE: $71.54 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.26 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.27 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Monday bears failed to capitalise on the

break of Friday's low with bulls taking comfort in the bounce that maintains

immediate pressure on the bull channel top and then the $73.25-74.36 region

above. Bears still need a close below $70.26 to ease bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to $66.85-67.63. Modestly O/B daily studies remain the key

concern for bulls.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]