MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7665 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*RES 1: $0.7533 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7512 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7495 - Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returned to the 21-DMA after bears failed to trouble 2018

lows so far this week. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7589 to shift initial focus back to $0.7648. Bears

continue to look for a close below 2018 lows to confirm focus on the $0.7326-68

region where May & June 17 lows are noted. Daily studies are well placed for a

fresh leg lower.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6952

*RES 4: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 3: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 2: $0.6952 - Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6936 - High May 17

*PRICE: $0.6879 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 2: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Wednesday which is less than

ideal for bears given daily studies lingering at O/S levels. Bears currently

focus on tests of Nov & Dec lows. Resistance layers are again accumulating and

adding to bearish confidence. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.6952

to gain breathing room and above $0.6996 to shift initial focus to $0.7052.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Targeting 2018 High

*RES 4: NZ$1.1290 - 2017 High Oct 24

*RES 3: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 1: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0919 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0900 - High May 15 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0883 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0806 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The close above NZ$1.0900 confirms traction above the 200-DMA and

sees bulls focused on tests of 2018 highs. O/B daily studies are seen as the key

concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below NZ$1.0843 to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure and sees focus shift back to tests of the

100-DMA (NZ$1.0763). A close above 2018 highs is now needed to target NZ$1.1290

2017 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus Back On Y83.79-84.51

*RES 4: Y84.25 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.06 - High Apr 13 

*RES 2: Y83.94 - High Apr 19 

*RES 1: Y83.79 - 100-WMA

*PRICE: Y83.22 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.58 - Hourly resistance May 16 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.16 - Low May 16

*SUP 3: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 4: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards Y82.00 provided the impetus

for a close above Y82.78 Wednesday, shifting overall focus to Y83.79-84.51 where

key DMA and WMAs are situated. Support layers building add to bullish

confidence. Bears now need a close below Y82.58 to gain breathing room and below

Y82.00 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and reconfirm focus on Y80.51-81.13

where 2018 lows are situated.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: 100-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: A$1.5915 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 2: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5734 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5704 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5656 - Low Mar 17 

*SUP 2: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20 

*SUP 3: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far has resulted in closes

below the 100-DMA with immediate pressure on A$1.5619. Overall bears need a

close below A$1.5919 to shift initial focus to A$1.5462-95 where the 200-DMA

(A$1.5462) is located. O/S studies are the key concern for bears. Bulls now need

a close above A$1.5771 to gain breathing room and above A$1.5967 to confirm

breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and to target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused on 200-WMA

*RES 4: 94.721 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.132 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 93.632 - 2018 High May 16

*PRICE: 93.478 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.378 - Hourly support May 17

*SUP 2: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 3: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 92.551 - Hourly support May 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 200-DMA provided the

impetus for fresh 2018 highs with bulls now focused on 94.219-721 where the

200-WMA is noted. O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 92.841 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA (91.949) to hint at

a move back to 90.554-724 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1889

*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1793 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1761 2018 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.1694 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead. The

sell-off that followed has resulted in fresh 2018 lows with bears now initially

focused on $1.1690-1.1716 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows. Bulls look for

a close above $1.1889 to gain breathing room and target a correction back to

$1.1987-1.2053 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Closes Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.83 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.22 High Jan 22

*PRICE: Y110.76 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.47 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: Y109.13 Low May 11

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with the close above the 55-WMA adding

support to the case for a test of Y111.22-98. A close above Y111.98 is then

needed to target Y112.97-113.75 where the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted.

Bears still need a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room and below the

100-DMA (Y108.39) to shift initial focus back to Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is

noted. The Bollinger top (Y110.87) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.37 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Y132.21 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y131.26 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.22 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.62 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.22 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 3: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y129.91 lacked follow through Wednesday which is less

than ideal for bears given daily studies correcting from O/S. Y131.37 remains

key resistance with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and

above the 100-DMA (Y132.54) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While Y131.37 caps

bears initially focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to target the daily

bear channel base around Y125.52 today.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above 200-DMA To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.7 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1290.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.4 - 2018 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.4 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows have defined the week so far with closes below 55 &

200-WMAs adding weight to the bearish case and immediate focus on $1268.9-1277.7

where the 100-WMA is situated. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls now needing a

close above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to hint at

a correction to $1324.88-1332.6.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.26

*RES 4: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now 

*RES 2: $72.31 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $72.30 - 2018 High May 17

*PRICE: $71.57 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $70.26 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.41 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Monday bears failed to capitalise on the

break of Friday's low with bulls taking comfort in the bounce that maintains

immediate pressure on the bull channel top and then the $73.25-74.36 region

above. Bears still need a close below $70.26 to ease bullish pressure and shift

initial focus back to $66.85-67.63. Modestly O/B daily studies remain the key

concern for bulls.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]