MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7520 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7637 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590- High May 25

*PRICE: $0.7559 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7520 - Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 3: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($0.7524) as narrow sideways trading defined the latter

part of last week. Bears look for a close below $0.7520 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and target $0.7326-68

where May & June 17 lows are noted. Layers of resistance remain $0.7620-61 with

bulls needing a close above the falling TL ($0.7661) to shift focus to

$0.7735-0.7842.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Targeting $0.6779-0.6815

*RES 4: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 2: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 1: $0.6952 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.6918 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6882 - Low May 23

*SUP 2: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows struggled last week with the pair

lacking follow through above $0.6952 and capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $0.6996 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

shift initial focus to $0.7052. Momentum studies are back at neutral levels and

well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bears currently focus on tests of Nov & Dec

lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25

*PRICE: NZ$1.0906 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0886 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0811 - 55-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0757 - 100-DMA+

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Friday's 3mth highs is less than

ideal for bulls with combined with momentum divergence and O/B studies looking

to correction. In saying that, bears need a close below the 200-WMA to gain

breathing room ad below NZ$1.0843 to shift focus back to tests of the 100-DMA

(NZ$1.0757). While the 200-DMA supports immediate focus remains on tests of 2018

highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y82.00 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y84.04 - High May 23 

*RES 3: Y83.88 - Hourly support May 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.54 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 1: Y83.16 - High May 25

*PRICE: Y82.95 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.38 - Low May 24

*SUP 2: Y82.18 - Low May 16

*SUP 3: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 4: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 100-DMA left the pair looking

heavy Wednesday and bears capitalised with a sell-off that has so far found

support below the 55-DMA. Correcting O/B studies are a concern for bulls. Bulls

now need a close above Y83.54 to gain breathing room and above Y84.51 to add

support to the case for a test of 200-DMA & WMAs. The Y82.00 support is key this

week. Bears need a close below to target 2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On A$1.5328-90

*RES 4: A$1.5651 - Low May 19 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5618 - High May 23

*RES 2: A$1.5526 - High May 24

*RES 1: A$1.5479 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5449 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5402 - Low May 25 

*SUP 2: A$1.5390 - Low Feb 1 

*SUP 3: A$1.5328 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the closes below the 200-DMA with immediate

focus on A$1.5328-90 where the 55-WMA is noted. Bears now look for a close below

the 55-WMA to confirm focus on tests of 2018 lows with a overall focus shifting

to 100 (A$1.4909) & 200 (A$1.4866) WMAs. Bulls now need a close above A$1.5526

to gain breathing room and above A$1.5651 to shift initial focus to 21 &

100-DMAs A$1.5743-1.5750.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused On 94.650-95.167

*RES 4: 95.580 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 94.650 - High Nov 10 now support 

*RES 1: 94.363 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 94.188 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.037 - Hourly support May 25

*SUP 2: 93.611 - Low May 24

*SUP 3: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 4: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 highs to finish the week with

focus on the 94.650-95.167 resistance region this week. The Bollinger band top

continues to cap and O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. In saying that,

bears need a close below 94.037 to gain breathing room and below 93.291 to shift

initial focus back to 91.959-92.223 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1750

*RES 4: $1.2018 200-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24

*PRICE: $1.1684 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1643 2018 Low May 25 

*SUP 2: $1.1628 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1624 High Nov 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552

following fresh 2018 lows again Friday. The Bollinger base & O/S studies are the

key concern with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain

adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls still need a close above $1.1750 to

gain breathing room and above the $1.1889 to shift initial focus to

$1.2018-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.82 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.74 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.54 Hourly support May 28 

*SUP 2: Y108.94 Low May 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week adding weight to the case for a correction

back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA (Y108.16) and 55 & 100-DMAs (Y108.02-23)

are situated. Bears continue to look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks

of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to Y106.57. Bulls need a close above

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y110.72 to shift initial focus back

to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y125.80 Level Remains Pivotal LT

*RES 4: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.10 200-WMA

*RES 1: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y128.21 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.13 2018 Monthly Low May 25 

*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Y125.16 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y125.10 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy last week

with fresh 2018 lows continuing Friday. The Y125.80 weekly support remains

pivotal. Bears look for a close below to shift immediate focus to the bull

channel base (Y122.37) and hint at a move to Y114.82-117.05 where the bull

channel base off 2012 lows are noted. Bulls now need a close above the 200-WMA

to gain breathing room and above Y130.22 to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1310.5

*RES 4: $1326.2 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1321.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.1 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1301.1 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1297.8 - High May 23 now support 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1277.6 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S

studies has provided the impetus for a bounce that saw gold pressuring the

200-DMA. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and

shift initial focus to $1321.8-1326.2 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now

need a close below $1297.8 to ease pressure on the 200-DMA and return immediate

focus to 2018 lows.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Focus Shifts To $64.43-66.80

*RES 4: $71.22 - Hourly resistance May 24 

*RES 3: $70.24 - Low May 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $68.30 - Hourly support May 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $67.88 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $67.42 - Low May 25 

*SUP 2: $66.80 - Low May 2 

*SUP 3: $66.69 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $66.10 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top provided the impetus

for an aggressive break of $70.24 Friday. Focus has shifted to the $64.43-66.80

support region where the bull channel base, 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. The

Bollinger base ($66.93) is a concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Bulls now need a close above $68.30 to gain breathing room and above

$70.24 to shift focus higher.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]