MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7527

*RES 4: $0.7682 - High Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7627 - High June 8

*RES 2: $0.7583 - Hourly resistance June 13

*RES 1: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7472 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of $0.7627 have left the pair looking heavy

this week and provided the catalyst for a sharp sell-off that sees bears focused

on 2018 lows once more and then the $0.7368 June 2017 low. Layers of resistance

have been left in the wake with bulls now needing a close above $0.7527 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7627 to shift initial focus back to layers of

resistance $0.7682-0.7738 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Below $0.6960 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7074 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7059 - High May 4 

*RES 2: $0.7021 - Hourly resistance June 14a 

*RES 1: $0.6999 - Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: $0.6975 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6975 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.6960 - High May 28 now support

*SUP 3: $0.6880 - Low May 30

*SUP 4: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through the past week or so and

hesitation ahead of $0.7059 combined with daily studies at O/B levels have

resulted in a sharp sell-off with immediate pressure back on $0.6960. Overall

below $0.6960 is needed to return focus to $0.6849-80 where 2018 lows are

situated. Layers of resistance are now weighing. Bulls now need a close above

$0.7021 to gain breathing room.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0697 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.0854 - High June 8

*RES 3: NZ$1.0793 - High June 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.0754 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0737 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0703 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0697 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*COMMENTARY: Bears have not been disappointed with the failure to take out

NZ$1.0906 reconfirming a return in focus to NZ$1.0697 and confirming the

significance of this support. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0697 to confirm

traction below 55 & 100-DMAS and return overall focus to 2018 lows. Bulls now

look for a close above NZ$1.0754 to gain breathing room and above NZ$1.0793 to

shift focus back to NZ$1.0854-1.0906.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Closes Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y83.98 - High June 13 

*RES 3: Y83.63 - High June 14 

*RES 2: Y83.37 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 1: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.76 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.99 - Low May 31

*SUP 2: Y81.04 - Low May 30

*SUP 3: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y82.78) resulted in a close

below, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to Y80.51-81.04 although

Y81.99 may slow the move. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case.

Bulls now need a close above Y83.38 to gain breathing room and above Y83.63 to

shift focus back to layers of resistance Y83.98-84.53.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5391

*RES 4: A$1.5692 - High June 14

*RES 3: A$1.5618 - Hourly support June 14a now resistance

*RES 2: A$1.5545 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5516 - Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: A$1.5483 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5424 - Low June 14 

*SUP 2: A$1.5391 - High June 6 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5348 - Low June 7 

*SUP 4: A$1.5274 - Lows June 4 & 5

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive spike higher Thursday was violently reversed with

the pair looking offered with daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels

seen weighing. bears now look for a close below A$1.5391 to confirm focus on

A$1.5256-74. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need

a close above A$1.5545 to gain breathing room and above A$1.5618 to return focus

to A$1.5692-1.5771 where 55 & 100-DMAs are found.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressuring 200-WMA

*RES 4: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 

*RES 1: 94.980 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: 94.911 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.587 - Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have regained the upper hand with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate pressure on 94.980-95.167 where the 200-WMA and 2018 highs are

located. Bulls look for a close above 95.167 to initially target 96.512 weekly

highs from July 2017. Bears now look for a close below 94.587 to gain breathing

room and below 94.028 to shift focus back to 92.841-93.193.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1704 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: $1.1618 Hourly support June 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1567 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1549 Hourly resistance May 30 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1414 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-WMA and the $$1.1854-91 resistance

region combined with O/B studies looking to correct has taken its toll with a

sharp sell-off that sees immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears continue to

look for a close below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1423) & 200-WMAs,

shifting immediate focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above

$1.1723 to gain breathing room.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.84

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.84 High June 13

*PRICE: Y110.62 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.24 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 2: Y109.84 Hourly resistance June 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.97 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in close above the 200-DMA (Y110.23) but now

need a close above Y110.84 to confirm traction above the 200-DMA and return

immediate focus to Y111.39-98. Initial support is noted at Y110.24 with bears

still needing a close below Y109.84 to ease bullish pressure and below the

55-DMA to pressure Y107.85-108.11 where the 100-DMA is found. Daily studies

approaching O/B is less than ideal for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Topside Failures Take A Heavy Toll

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: Y128.62 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y127.97 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.56 Low June 4 

*SUP 2: Y127.10 Low June 1 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA (Y130.39) and

Y130.39-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated

combined with very O/B studies looking to correct has provided the impetus for a

sharp sell-off that shifts overall focus back to 2018 lows. Bears now need a

close below Y127.10 to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above

Y129.26 to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1321.6 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1314.2 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1305.2 - Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: $1301.8 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1292.1 - Low June 13 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1276.0 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1310.5 resistance reconfirmed significance with the pop above

the 200-DMA ($1306.6) lacking follow through. Bulls need a close above $1310.5

to ease bearish pressure and shift immediate focus to $1314.2-1326.6 where 55 &

100-DMAs are found. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to reconfirm a bearish

bias and target $1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015

lows are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Above $68.52 Shifts Focus To $70.86

*RES 4: $70.86 - Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 2: $67.97 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $67.23 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $66.82 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $66.18 - Low June 14 

*SUP 2: $65.42 - Low June 12 

*SUP 3: $64.91 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low 

*SUP 4: $64.15 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the lack of follow through on dips below the

100-DMA ($64.59) with focus having returned to $67.23-68.52 where 21 & 55-DMAs

are noted. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above

$68.52 to shift focus to $70.86. Initial support is noted at $66.18 today with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. Below $64.15 is needed to

shift initial focus to $61.43.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]