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Curve Twist Steepens, Futures Narrow

US EURODLR FUTURES

EDU2/Z2/H3 Fly Given

US TSY OPTIONS

TYF2 132.00 Calls Still Being Lifted

20 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
 
AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7326 To Target 2017 Low
*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15
*RES 2: $0.7456 - High June 18
*RES 1: $0.7430 - Hourly support June 18 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7377 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7373 - Hourly support June 19 
*SUP 2: $0.7344 - 2018 Low June 19 
*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 
*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of $0.7682 has now resulted in fresh 2018 &
12 month lows adding weight to the case for a test of $0.7326 May 2017 lows.
Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls needing a close above
$0.7430 to gain breathing room and above $0.7481 to shift initial focus back to
$0.7527-0.7327 where 21 ($0.7545) & 55 ($7580) DMAs are noted. Bears now need a
close below $0.7326 to target $0.7160 2017 lows.
     KIWI TECHS: $0.6969-99 Resistance Region Remains Key
*RES 4: $0.7021 - Hourly resistance June 14a 
*RES 3: $0.6999 - Hourly resistance June 14 
*RES 2: $0.6969 - Low June 14 now resistance 
*RES 1: $0.6918 - Low June 18 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.6896 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6880 - Low May 30
*SUP 2: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16
*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1
*SUP 4: $0.6779 - 2017 Low Nov 17
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through the past week or so and
hesitation ahead of $0.7059 combined with daily studies at O/B levels resulted
in losses last week with immediate focus now back on 2018 lows. Fresh 2018 lows
are now required to confirm focus on $0.6779 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close
above $0.6969 to gain breathing room and above $0.6999 to return focus to layers
of resistance $0.7059-0.7198.
     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0759-93 Resistance Key
*RES 4: NZ$1.0829 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: NZ$1.0793 - High June 14
*RES 2: NZ$1.0759 - High June 15
*RES 1: NZ$1.0741 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: NZ$1.0692 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9 & June 19
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16t
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12
*COMMENTARY: The break of the key NZ$1.0697 support has so far lacked follow
through which is less than ideal as daily studies approach O/S. The NZ$1.0741-93
resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.0759 to gain breathing
room and above NZ$1.0793 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0854-1.0906 where the
200-DMA is noted. Bears now focus on a close below NZ$1.0655 to add weight to
the case for a test of NZ$1.0486-00 where the LT rising TL is noted.
     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Support Emerges On Approach To 2018 Low
*RES 4: Y83.37 - Hourly resistance June 14 
*RES 3: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15 
*RES 1: Y81.89 - Low June 18 now resistance
*PRICE: Y81.21 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y81.00 - Hourly support June 19
*SUP 2: Y80.63 - Low June 19
*SUP 3: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23
*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016
*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y82.75) resulted in a close below
Thursday, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to 2018 lows. Daily
studies approaching O/S is an issue as is the Bollinger base (Y81.13) limiting
follow through. Bulls need a close above Y81.89 to gain breathing room and above
Y82.97 to shift focus back to layers of resistance Y83.63-85.19 where the
200-DMA is noted.
     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above A$1.5771 To End Bearish Hopes
*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9
*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High May 15
*RES 2: A$1.5771 - Low May 11 now resistance
*RES 1: A$1.5769 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: A$1.5694 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5624 - Hourly support June 18 
*SUP 2: A$1.5541 - Low June 18 
*SUP 3: A$1.5477 - Hourly support June 15 
*SUP 4: A$1.5424 - Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Last week's late recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (A41.5356)
saw gains continue Tuesday only to remain capped ahead of the key A$1.5771
resistance. Bulls need a close above A$1.5771 to confirm breaks of 55 &
100-DMAs, shifting immediate focus to A$1.5887-1.5967 and overall focus to tests
of 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a close below A$1.5624 to gain
breathing room as daily studies linger at O/B levels.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 200-WMA
*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 
*RES 3: 95.575 - 100-WMA 
*RES 2: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 
*RES 1: 95.296 - 2018 High June 19
*PRICE: 94.991 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 94.534 - Low June 19
*SUP 2: 94.090 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support
*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA
(95.043) is less than ideal with the 100-WMA lurking just above. Bulls now need
a close above the 100-WMA to initially target 96.617. Daily studies have room to
move before O/B is an issue. Bears now need a close below 94.534 to gain
breathing room and below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift
initial focus back to 93.193.
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.1680 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14
*PRICE: $1.1593 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1528 Low June 19, Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 
*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 
*SUP 4: $1.1406 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears remain focused on tests of 2018 lows although follow through
was lacking Tuesday with support emerging ahead of 2018 lows. The Bollinger base
is the key concern for bears and currently limits follow through. Bears continue
to look for a close below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1429) & 200-WMAs,
shifting immediate focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close
above $1.1723 to shift focus back to $1.1854-94.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.01
*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 
*RES 3: Y110.90 High June 15 
*RES 2: Y110.62 Hourly resistance June 8 
*RES 1: Y110.23 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y110.08 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.53 Low June 19 
*SUP 2: Y109.18 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 
*SUP 4: Y108.70 Low June 1
*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.23) sees the
pair dipping back towards the Y109.01 support. Bears still need a close below
Y109.01 to initially pressure Y107.85-108.15 where the 100-DMA is found with
below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows. Daily studies correcting from
O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bulls now need a close above Y110.90 to
confirm traction above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y128.64 to Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance
*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14
*RES 1: Y128.00 Hourly support June 19 now resistance
*PRICE: Y127.53 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.63 Low June 19 
*SUP 2: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 3: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29 
*SUP 4: Y123.63 Low June 21 2017
*COMMENTARY: Despite an aggressive sell-off follow through has been lacking.
Bears focus on the Y126.22 support with a close below  to add weight to the case
for a test of 2018 lows and a potential move back to the bull channel base
(Y122.89). Bulls continue to look for a close above Y128.64 to gain breathing
room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA once again. The Bollinger base is
noted at Y126.06 and is expected to limit follow through on a break below.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Flirting With 100-WMA
*RES 4: $1305.2 - Hourly resistance June 14 
*RES 3: $1294.4 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 
*RES 1: $1284.1 - High June 19
*PRICE: $1274.3 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1270.0 - 2018 Low June 19 
*SUP 2: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 now support 
*SUP 3: $1234.1 - 200-WMA, LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 
*SUP 4: $1214.0 - Low July 12
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth highs continued Tuesday with gold flirting with
the 100-WMA. A weekly close below would add significant weight to the case for a
test of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL off 2015 lows. Gold has room to move before
O/S is an issue although the Bollinger base ($1278.7) limits follow through.
Bulls need a close above $1286.2 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to
return pressure to $1310.5.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Above $68.52 To End Bearish Hopes
*RES 4: $68.52 - High May 30 
*RES 3: $67.33 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: $67.09 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $66.18 - Low June 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $64.90 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $64.23 - Low June 19 
*SUP 2: $63.98 - Low June 18 
*SUP 3: $63.29 - Daily bull channel base off Aug 30 low 
*SUP 4: $62.36 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continues with oil giving back some of Monday's
gains. The $67.09-68.52 resistance region where the 21 & 55-DMAs are located
remains key. Bulls need a close above $68.52 to end bearish hopes and shift
initial focus back to $70.86-72.70. Bears now need a close below the bull
channel base ($63.29) of Aug 30 lows to reconfirm the bearish bias and initially
pressure $61.43.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]