MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7393

*RES 4: $0.7559 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7516 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 1: $0.7456 - High June 18

*PRICE: $0.7411 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7393 - Low June 25 

*SUP 2: $0.7342 - 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from last week's 2018 & 12mth

lows as daily studies correct from O/S levels. The close above $0.7430 Friday

saw bulls gain breathing room with a close above $0.7481 to shift initial focus

back to $0.7516-0.7327 where 21 ($0.7516) & 55 ($0.7559) DMAs are noted. Support

layers are accumulating with bears now needing a close below $0.7393 to return

initial pressure to 2018 lows.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.6882 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7024 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.6999 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 2: $0.6969 - Low June 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6921 - High June 25

*PRICE: $0.6892 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6882 - High June 21 now support

*SUP 2: $0.6846 - Hourly support June 21a

*SUP 3: $0.6823 - 2018 Low June 21

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through on fresh 2018 & 7mth lows was

less than ideal for bears given daily studies looking to correct from O/S and

the Bollinger base at $0.6848. Bulls look for a close above $0.6921 to gain

breathing room and above $0.6999 to return focus to $0.7024-0.7103 where key

DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below $0.6882 to gain breathing room and

retain pressure on $0.6815-23.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: NZ$1.0812 - Daily Bear channel top off May high

*RES 3: NZ$1.0793 - High June 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.0789 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0779 - High June 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0740 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0709 - Low June 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9 & June 19

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key NZ$1.0697 support lacked follow through last

week which is less than ideal with daily studies correcting from O/S.

NZ$1.0779-93 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above the bear channel

top to shift focus back to NZ$1.0854-1.0906. Bears now need a close below

NZ$1.0709 to reconfirm focus on a close below NZ$1.0655 to add weight to the

case for a test of NZ$1.0486-1.0502 where the LT rising TL is noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y81.93 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y83.37 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 1: Y81.93 - High June 22

*PRICE: Y81.36 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.98 - Low June 25

*SUP 2: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*SUP 3: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: The failure to make fresh 2018 lows last week is a concern for

bears and leaves daily studies correcting from O/S levels. Bulls now need a

close above Y81.93 to gain breathing room and above Y82.97 to confirm breaks of

key DMAs and to shift focus back to layers of resistance Y83.63-85.05 where the

200-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below Y80.24 to shift focus to

Y74.50-75.95.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Initial Focus On A$1.5887-1.5967

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 2: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 1: A$1.5818 - High June 25

*PRICE: A$1.5786 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5771 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: A$1.5710 - Hourly resistance June 25 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5615 - Low June 20

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 100-DMA (A$1.5772) and the A$1.5771 resistance have

taken their toll with a close above seeing focus shift on A$1.5887-1.5967. Daily

studies at O/B levels and the Bollinger top (A$1.5828) are seen as concerns for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Bears now look for a close below

A$1.5710 to confirm a false break higher and return initial focus to

A$1.5615-50.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 100-WMA Capped Last Week

*RES 4: 95.372 - Hourly resistance June 21a 

*RES 3: 95.040 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 2: 94.880 - High June 22 

*RES 1: 94.466 - Hourly resistance June 25

*PRICE: 94.301 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.240 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA

(95.098) continued with the rejection around the 100-WMA (95.558) seeing a

bearish key day reversal Thursday and leaving the index offered. Bears look for

a close below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to

93.193. Bulls now need a close above 94.880 to gain breathing room and above the

100-WMA to initially target 96.617.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1734 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 1: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1703 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1671 Hourly support June 25 

*SUP 2: $1.1625 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: $1.1598 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: $1.1574 Hourly support June 21

*COMMENTARY: The dip Thursday left a double daily bottom in place around the

2018 low with the Bollinger base ($1.1521) remaining a concern for bears. Bears

need a close below 2018 lows to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100

($1.1435) & 200 ($1.1399) WMAs may support along the way. Bulls take comfort in

the close above the 21-DMA ($1.1678) but still need a close above the bear

channel top to shift focus back to $1.1854-94.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key, Bounces From 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 2: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 1: Y110.31 Hourly support June 21 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.75 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.39 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.16 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 having failed to gain

traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.21). Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to

confirm traction and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98. Bears need a close below

Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and Bull channel base, initially

pressuring Y107.85-108.16 where the 100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift

focus back to 2018 lows. Daily studies correcting from O/B have been weighing.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y128.64 to Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y130.00 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: Y128.45 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.28 Hourly resistance June 22 now support 

*SUP 2: Y127.84 Hourly resistance June 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Y127.36 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low 

*SUP 4: Y126.98 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: Despite an aggressive sell-off early last week downside follow

through has been lacking with the daily bull channel base supporting. Bulls look

for a close above Y128.64 to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure

the 55-DMA (Y130.00) once again. Correcting O/S studies are a concern for bears

who now need a close below Y127.84 to retain focus on Y126.22 and the close

below needed to add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1274.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1272.5 - High June 25

*PRICE: $1265.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1258.9 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $1237.6 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 4: $1234.1 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows defined last week with the weekly close

below the 100-WMA adding significant weight to the case for a test of the

200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows. The lack of follow through Thursday is a

concern for bears with the Bollinger base ($1263.1) proving problematic. Bulls

now need a close above the 100-WMA to gain breathing room and above $1292.1 to

return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $72.70 - Monthly High May 22 

*RES 3: $70.86 - Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: $69.44 - High June 25 

*RES 1: $68.50 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $68.19 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $67.66 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $66.21 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $66.10 - Hourly support June 22 

*SUP 4: $65.19 - Hourly resistance June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA came to an end with an aggressive

rally Friday and bullish close that ended bearish hopes and sees immediate focus

now on $70.86-72.70. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls and limits

follow through. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room

and below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to $63.40-52 where a bull

channel base is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]