MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

25 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7442 - High July 16

*PRICE: $0.7422 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the

bounce to end last week that returned pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance

region. Bulls now need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

($0.7475) and hint at a move back to $0.7567-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7567) & 200

($0.7669) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. The failures ahead of

$0.7442 remain a concern for bulls with bears currently focused on 2018 lows.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6858

*RES 4: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: $0.6858 - High July 9 

*RES 2: $0.6840 - High July 17 

*RES 1: $0.6824 - High July 23

*PRICE: $0.6798 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6766 - Low July 24

*SUP 2: $0.6711 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to make fresh 2018 lows and shift focus to the weekly

bear channel base coming in around $0.6543. The $0.6858-0.6921 resistance region

where the 55-DMA ($0.6883) is located remains key. Bulls now need a close above

$0.6858 to gain breathing room and above $0.6921 to confirm traction above the

55-DMA and hint at a move back to $0.7030-61 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Bears now need a close below $0.6766 to ease pressure on resistance layers.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 2: NZ$1.0974 - High July 16

*RES 1: NZ$1.0945 - High July 19

*PRICE: NZ$1.0906 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0859 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0856 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the key NZ$1.1006 resistance continues to result

in dips back to NZ$1.0856-59 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bears still need

a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to

NZ$1.0775. Initial resistance remains at NZ$1.0945 with bulls needing a close

above to gain breathing room. A close above NZ$1.1006 remains needed to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y83.00 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y83.38 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.00 - High July 20 

*RES 2: Y82.76 - High July 23 

*RES 1: Y82.59 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y82.46 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.81 - Low July 24

*SUP 2: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: Y80.99 - Low July 2

*SUP 4: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: A bearish key day reversal last week combined with daily studies

correcting from O/B and daily momentum divergence left the pair looking offered

and now sees the pair flirting with key DMAs. Bears now look for a close below

Y81.59 to confirm a return in focus to Y80.24-63. Bulls continue to look for a

close above Y83.00 to gain breathing room and above Y83.92 to return focus to

Y84.43-89 where the 200-DMA is situated.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5889 - High July 20

*RES 2: A$1.5864 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5818 - Hourly support July 24 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5736 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5654 - Low July 19 

*SUP 2: A$1.5651 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5620 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5615 - Low June 20s

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5889-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5889 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. The 200-DMA is

now key support. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to end bullish hopes and

hint at a move back to 2018 lows with below A$1.5541 to add weight to their

case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 96.652 - 2018 High July 19 

*RES 3: 95.520 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.280 - High July 20 

*RES 1: 94.933 - Low July 19 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.614 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.209 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.713 - Low July 9

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top Thursday which sees pressure back on the 55-DMA. Bears continue to

look for a close below 93.713 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and bull

channel base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193, and hint at a move back to 100

(92.508) & 200 (92.317) DMAs. Bulls continue to look for a close above 94.933 to

gain breathing room and above the 100-WMA (95.520) to target 96.617.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1625 & $1.1765 Levels Key

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1681 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1655 Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 3: $1.1572 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1765 resistance reconfirmed significance with it capping to

start the new week. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above

the 55-DMA ($1.1701) and ease bearish pressure. Above the 55-WMA ($1.1933)

remains needed to shift initial focus to $1.1944-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1944) &

200 ($1.1979) DMAs are found. Bears still need a close below $1.1625 to return

immediate focus to 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.95-110.74 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 3: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 1: Y111.54 High July 23

*PRICE: Y111.14 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.74 Low July 23 

*SUP 2: Y110.49 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y110.10 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.95 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The break below the 21-DMA (Y111.36) and daily bull channel base

off 2018 lows lacked follow through with the pair bouncing from just below

Y110.75. Bears now need a close below Y110.74 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA

and bull channel base and add weight to the case for a test of the Y109.95

support. Below Y109.95 then pressures Y108.96-109.01 where the 100-DMA is noted.

Bulls look for a close above Y111.54 to gain breathing room and above Y111.90 to

return focus to Y113.26 where the 200-WMA is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.85 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 2: Y131.20 High July 20

*RES 1: Y130.46 Hourly resistance July 23

*PRICE: Y129.86 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.72 Low July 24 

*SUP 2: Y129.29 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: Y127.69 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.53) last

week. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of

the 55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.58 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

Correcting O/B daily studies are the key concern for bulls and continue to

weigh. The break of Y129.83 has so far lacked follow through with bears now

needing a close below Y129.72 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the

55-DMA (Y129.29) to confirm. Bulls now need a close above Y131.20 to shift focus

back to the 200-DMA.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1243.4 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1234.0 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1224.2 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1217.8 - Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 3: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the topside failure around the 200-WMA to

start the new week with gold remaining offered as a result. Bulls still need a

close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to return initial

focus to $1270.5-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted. Bears remain focused on

$1204.6 while $1236.6 caps. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base ($1218.3)

remain concerns for bears with potential to limit follow through.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 2: $69.77 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $69.31 - High July 23

*PRICE: $68.76 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19 

*SUP 2: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $66.31 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $65.89 - High June 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. In saying that, while the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the

$65.89-66.30 supports with a close below $67.21 now needed to buy bears

breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]