MNI: Australia Net Exports Pose Downside Risk for Q3 GDP

--Terms of Trade Down 0.4% Q/Q

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's net exports are expected to make no contribution

to Q3 GDP, an outcome lower than expected that could lead to downward revisions

in GDP forecast by some economists.

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Tuesday showed the

deficit on goods and services rose A$145 million to A$9.8 billion in Q3 and is

expected to make no contribution to growth. The outcome compared with MNI survey

median forecast for a 0.3 percentage point positive contribution.

     The current-account deficit narrowed slightly in Q3 due to a fall of A$376

million on balance on goods and services which resulted in a surplus of A$3.06

billion in Q3. The primary income deficit fell A$1.0 billion to A$12.0 billion. 

     The data also showed Australia's terms of trade fell 0.4% in Q3 owing to an

decrease of 2.1% in the implicit price deflator for goods and services credits

and a decline of 1.6% in the deflator for goods and services debits.

     Data on government finances showed total general government final

consumption expenditure increased A$149 million or 0.2% q/q in Q2.  Total

general government gross fixed capital formation declined by A$1.6 billion or

8.9% q/q. Total public corporations gross fixed capital formation fell by A$218

million - a decline of 3.6% q/q.

     Overall, both the net export and government finances data posed downside

risk to current MNI median forecast for 0.7% q/q and 3.0% y/y GDP in Q3. The

data is due for release Wednesday.

     From Balance of Payments data for the third quarter published by the

Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday:

                                                   Q3                         Q2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                           In A$, Bln                 In A$, Bln

                                                             -9.66 (revised from

Current Acct Balance                            -9.12                     -9.56)

                                  -9.1 (Range -9.8 to

MNI Median                                     -6.72)

Net Export Contribution to

GDP                                    0.0 pct points            +0.3 pct points

MNI Median                   +0.3(Range -0.1 to +0.4)

Terms of Trade                                  -0.4%       -6.0% (revision N/A)

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MALDS$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]