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MNI Bank Indonesia Preview – August 2024: On Hold, Pieces Falling Into Place

INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK
  • Bank Indonesia (BI) is widely expected to leave rates at 6.25% on August 21 as FX stability remains the focus. It is highly unlikely to want to risk recent rupiah gains by cutting ahead of the Fed, which is generally expected to begin easing on September 18.
  • USDIDR appears to have peaked in mid-June around 16478 but the pair is now down 5.6% since then to 15553, below the lower end of BI’s 2024 range – it is now moving in the right direction as Fed easing expectations build. It is down 4.0% since the July 17 meeting and the August average is 2.4% below July and the first month below 16000 since March.
  • With meetings every month, BI has the flexibility to watch and wait and may not necessarily feel the pressure to cut rates at its first meeting following Fed easing. The use of macroprudential policies to buoy the economy may mean that BI won’t be in a hurry to cut rates as it not only has other tools but growth has likely become less sensitive to rates.
  • See full preview here.
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