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MNI Bank Indonesia Preview - July 2023: Extended Pause, Too Early To Cut

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Bank Indonesia is widely expected to keep rates at 5.75%, where it has been since February 2023. Its pause should be extended until towards the end of the year and possibly into 2024 with the next move in rates likely to be down. So, at this and subsequent meetings, the statement will be examined closely for changes in tone or expectations.
  • Strengthening FX stabilisation policy remains the policy focus and with the rupiah weakening since the last meeting that probably not only remained the case but has been extended. USDIDR is up around 0.3% since the June 22 meeting and the NEER down 1.1%. BI has a number of tools to maintain rupiah stabilisation apart from rates, including intervention and "operation twist".
  • Disappointing growth, inflation heading to below 2%, a stronger IDR and a clear end to the Fed's tightening cycle are likely needed for BI to begin easing monetary policy.

Click to view full preview:

BI Preview - July 2023.pdf

Asia Bank - PreviewHomepageBank of Indonesia - PreviewEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewEmerging Market News

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