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MNI Bank Of Thailand Preview: May 2023: 25bp Hike, Statement Tone Key

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is widely expected to hike another 25bp bringing rates to 2% at its May 31 meeting. BoT’s Sethaput has made clear since the March meeting that policy still needs to be normalised. Two analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect rates to be unchanged though.
  • The question is what the outlook for rates will be with many economists forecasting that they will stay at 2% for the rest of the year and into 2024. Any changes to the accompanying statement following the decision will be important for gauging if further tightening is in the pipeline.
  • Both core and headline inflation are now within the central bank’s 1% to 3% target band and eased further in April. But BoT’s Sethaput continued to note in May that the central bank is not yet done on inflation and upside risks remain.

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BoT Preview - May 2023.pdf

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