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MNI Banxico Review - Nov 22: Dovish Tweaks

MNI Banxico Review - November 2022

MNI Banxico Review - November 2022

Executive Summary

  • Banxico's governing board decided to hike the overnight rate by 75bps to 10.00%.
  • In a marginally dovish development board members were split in their decision, with Deputy Governor Esquivel voting for a smaller hike of 50bps.
  • Headline inflation projections were revised lower for the first three quarters in 2023, however, core metrics were adjusted upwards over the same period.
  • Most analysts note the relatively dovish additions to the statement but continue to highlight the hawkish undertones of the committee and fully expect Banxico to match the Fed in December.

Click to view the full review: MNI Banxico Review - November 2022.pdf

Banxico hiked 75bps for the fourth consecutive meeting, bringing the overnight rate to 10.00%. The marginally dovish Esquivel dissent is notable but not all together surprising given his recent comments and we would expect for there to be a good amount of discussion for upcoming decoupling from the Fed in the minutes on November 24. Whether decoupling will be entirely necessary given yesterday’s US data is another topic for discussion.

The complete set of revised inflation forecasts were set out in the following table within the statement:

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