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MNI BCRP Review - Oct 2024: Unexpected Hold

Peru’s central bank unexpectedly kept its reference rate unchanged at 5.25%, against forecasts for a further 25bp cut.

Executive Summary

  • Peru’s central bank unexpectedly kept its reference rate unchanged at 5.25%, against most analysts’ expectations for a further 25bp cut.
  • Despite soft September CPI data, the board highlighted a temporary uptick in inflation that is expected in Q4, as well as concerns about mounting geopolitical risks.
  • Analysts expect the central bank to continue with gradual rate cuts ahead, but with risks of another pause next month, which may provide some support to the currency.

Click to view the full review: MNI Peru Central Bank Review - October 2024.pdf

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Executive Summary

  • Peru’s central bank unexpectedly kept its reference rate unchanged at 5.25%, against most analysts’ expectations for a further 25bp cut.
  • Despite soft September CPI data, the board highlighted a temporary uptick in inflation that is expected in Q4, as well as concerns about mounting geopolitical risks.
  • Analysts expect the central bank to continue with gradual rate cuts ahead, but with risks of another pause next month, which may provide some support to the currency.

Click to view the full review: MNI Peru Central Bank Review - October 2024.pdf