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MNI BI Preview – May 2024: Stronger IDR, BI On Hold

INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK
  • We do not expect BI to raise rates again at its May 22 meeting but FX stability will remain its focus and the tone of the statement will be in line with this. Consensus is unanimous in expecting no rate change in May.
  • The April rate hike was not just to support the rupiah but also proactively reduce the impact of higher imported inflation on the CPI, as import prices move quite closely with the TWI. The JP Morgan NEER is up 0.4% since the April meeting but still down 4% since its recent peak in June 2023 and so it appears that imported inflation will continue to trend higher.
  • BI is likely to be on hold for most if not all of this year and is highly unlikely to risk a sharp move higher in USDIDR by cutting rates ahead of the Fed and likely wants to keep the rate differential fairly stable.
  • See full preview here.
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