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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI: CANADA 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The BoC is unanimously expected to hold its policy rate at 5% with greater focus on the statement’s tone and macro forecasts before Macklem’s press conference.
- One important area will be to what extent the BoC sees the recent resurgence in its preferred core inflation metrics as “bumps along the way” in a path back towards the 2% inflation target.
- The market has pushed back fully pricing a first rate cut from April to June and analysts expect hawkish leaning commentary. We expect similar and accordingly see risk skewed to a dovish surprise if greater weight is put on the softer aspects of nuanced data or inflation forecasts are lowered.
- A couple analysts also start to look at the possibility of reducing the pace of QT amidst liquidity concerns.
- Housekeeping: note the new format for BoC decisions, with announcements 15mins earlier at 0945ET and all to be followed by a press conference at 1030ET. Possibly confusing matters, the opening statement to the press conference will be released with the decision statement. The MPR will remain quarterly.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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