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MNI BoC Preview, Mar'23: Maintaining The Conditional Pause

Source: Bank of Canada

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The BoC is unanimously expected to keep rates on hold at 4.5% on Wednesday and for the most part echo January’s pivot to guidance of a conditional pause whilst leaving the door open to further hikes.
  • Data has been mixed. Employment was far stronger than expected but CPI showed some moderation and GDP was surprisingly soft, albeit partly offset by hawkish implications from weaker productivity growth.
  • Surprises should never be ruled out from the BoC, with a weaker CAD adding inflationary pressure at the margin. However, market reaction could be limited with focus on nuances of the single page statement before potentially more detail in Thursday’s Economic Progress Report from Senior Dep Gov Rogers.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

BOCPreviewMar2023.pdf


Canadian rates have been dragged higher by the substantial higher for longer push in the US

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