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MNI BoC Preview, Sep'23: Back To Assessing A Need For Hikes

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The BoC is almost unanimously seen keeping its policy rate on hold at 5% on Wednesday after coming off the sidelines to hike in both June and July, and with currently just 8bp of tightening priced by year-end.
  • A soft GDP print presents the main dovish development in the almost two months since the last decision, with otherwise more mixed data elsewhere.
  • We expect communication to maintain hiking flexibility until the October decision, which will follow the latest quarterly BoC business and consumer surveys and also include fresh economic forecasts.
  • Focus will be on which elements of nuanced data releases the Bank focuses on in the single page statement, before it’s Governor Macklem’s turn to present the Economic Progress Report on Thursday.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

BOCPreviewSep2023.pdf

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