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MNI BoC Preview: Touch And Go For Another Downshift, Watch Terminal Talk

Source: Bank of Canada
Bank of Canada headquarters.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The BoC is seen hiking either 25bp or 50bp on Wednesday in a very close call, with analysts in the Bloomberg survey fractionally leaning towards a 50bp hike and OIS pricing 32bps.
  • Data have been mixed with something for everyone but if pushed, we lean just towards a 25bp hike to better maintain optionality as the Bank nears a potential terminal rate.
  • The main two macro drivers for the call are the Q3 contraction in domestic demand (seemingly an important part of the Bank’s reaction function) and sequential core inflation moderating.
  • We certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see a 50bp hike and in the event of a 25bp hike would still expect moderately hawkish rate guidance to prevent an easing in financial conditions.
  • As always with non-MPR meetings, there is likely further detail from Dep Gov Kozicki speaking Thursday which could either firm or alter the initial market reaction.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

BOCPreviewDec2022.pdf

Central Bank PreviewHomepageBoC - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsMarketsCanada Bank of Canada Market News
Central Bank PreviewHomepageBoC - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsMarketsCanada Bank of Canada Market News

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