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MNI BoC Review, Jan'23: Gearing Up For A Potentially Lengthy Pause

Credit: Bank of Canada

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The BoC hiked 25bps to 4.5%, a decision that was broadly as expected but with surprisingly firm guidance for pausing at this level should economic developments evolve in line with its outlook.
  • Needing to see an accumulation of evidence to warrant further hikes but still being far too early to talk about rate cuts with still sizable upside risks to inflation imply a potentially length pause ahead.
  • The next decision on Mar 8 is likely a moot point barring significant global developments, with focus instead on Apr 12 by which time there will have been three months of labour data and two months of CPI. Some analysts look for rate cuts in the second half of 2023 whilst heavy rate cuts remain priced to mid-2024.
  • First though, the first ever meeting minutes on Feb 8 offer something new for analysts to assess.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

BOCReviewJan2023.pdf



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