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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI: CANADA 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The BoC left its overnight rate unchanged at 5% as heavily expected, with willingness to hike further.
- The tone was mixed, with greater inflation risks but a softer growth outlook amid clearer signs that monetary policy is biting -- the latter won out for a relatively modest rally in front end GoCs and lift in USDCAD to clear a bull trigger.
- We feel the bar to additional hikes has lifted but markets will remain sensitive to important local data releases, starting with monthly GDP on Oct 31. The single CPI report for Oct on Nov 21 likely has the most impact, especially if 3-month annualized rates remain at the high end of recent ranges or accelerate.
- Markets price around ¼ odds of a 25bp hike at the next meeting on Dec 6 and still see almost a 50/50 chance of such a hike with the January meeting. There is a little under 50bps of cuts priced to end-2024 whilst there is some consensus amongst analysts reviewed below for cuts to start around mid-2024.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT INCLUDING MNI ANALYSIS HERE:
Evolution of economic forecasts: stronger inflation despite weaker growth
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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