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MNI BOE PREVIEW: 25bp Now, What Next?

BOE
  • Along with every analyst preview that we have read, the MNI Markets team expects a 25bp hike this week. Markets are pricing in just under 31bp for the meeting, which if at least a 25bp hike is assumed, equates to just over a 20% probability of a 50bp hike.
  • We think that the biggest thing that could impact market pricing would be the removal of “coming months” from the forward guidance.
  • Without a change in the guidance, a 50bp hike would be hawkish, even if it is accompanied by a wafer thin majority.
  • Conversely, if there are more than 2 MPC members voting for rates to remain on hold (with Cunliffe and probably Tenreyro joined by one other) this would likely see a dovish reaction.
  • For the full MNI preview including the summaries of 22 sellside views, see the full document here.
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