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MNI BoE Preview - February 2025: Agents Pay Survey in Focus

It would be a huge surprise if the MPC did not cut 25bp this week - but the Agents' Pay Survey risks surprising markets.
Central Bank PreviewHomepageBoE - PreviewCEEMEACentral Bank ReportsUKMarketsStory
  • It would be a huge surprise to the market if this week’s MPC meeting delivered anything other than a 25bp cut to bring Bank Rate to 4.50%.
  • The bar is also high for forward guidance to be meaningfully tweaked. We would be surprised if the vote split wasn’t 8-1 (also the base case for 18/22 sellside previews we read), although there are risks around the vote, particularly from the Agents’ Pay Survey.
  • The Agents'; Pay Survey is the single measure with the most potential to cause surprises overall, both this week (to MPR projections, the vote split etc) and to future policy.
  • We look at how data has evolved, expectations for the MPR projections as well as summarising over 20 sellside views.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI BoE Preview - Feb25.pdf

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  • It would be a huge surprise to the market if this week’s MPC meeting delivered anything other than a 25bp cut to bring Bank Rate to 4.50%.
  • The bar is also high for forward guidance to be meaningfully tweaked. We would be surprised if the vote split wasn’t 8-1 (also the base case for 18/22 sellside previews we read), although there are risks around the vote, particularly from the Agents’ Pay Survey.
  • The Agents'; Pay Survey is the single measure with the most potential to cause surprises overall, both this week (to MPR projections, the vote split etc) and to future policy.
  • We look at how data has evolved, expectations for the MPR projections as well as summarising over 20 sellside views.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI BoE Preview - Feb25.pdf