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MNI BOE Review - February 2023: Data dependence is back

BOE
  • The MNI Markets team had expected a 50bp hike at the February 2023 MPC meeting, and had thought that there was better risk-reward to position for a dovish outcome.
  • The BOE did indeed drop “forceful” and the new guidance is much more conditional on the data.
  • We think that the market pricing of one final 25bp hike in March, as well as the new analyst consensus expecting the same, looks appropriate.
  • We have read through over 20 analyst reviews and note that there has been a large swing towards a consensus of one final 25bp hike in March to a 4.25% terminal rate.

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