February 03, 2023 16:51 GMT
MNI BOE Review - February 2023: Data dependence is back
- The MNI Markets team had expected a 50bp hike at the February 2023 MPC meeting, and had thought that there was better risk-reward to position for a dovish outcome.
- The BOE did indeed drop “forceful” and the new guidance is much more conditional on the data.
- We think that the market pricing of one final 25bp hike in March, as well as the new analyst consensus expecting the same, looks appropriate.
- We have read through over 20 analyst reviews and note that there has been a large swing towards a consensus of one final 25bp hike in March to a 4.25% terminal rate.