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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- We have compiled a subset of 13 analyst views – all of which have updated or reaffirmed their Bank Rate forecasts following the energy support scheme announced by Prime Minister Liz Truss last week.
- 11/13 (85%) of analysts look for a 50bp hike in September while BNP and JP Morgan look for a 75bp hike (15%). This is below market pricing of 65bp (which implies around a 60% probability of a 75bp hike with 50bp fully priced).
- Terminal rate expectations are 75-100bp higher than following the August meeting, but still below market expectations: The median is 3.50% (up from 2.50% following the August MPC meeting) while 62% of analysts expect a terminal rate of in a 3.00%-3.50% range. The terminal rate according to market pricing is around 4.33% at the time of writing.
- The terminal rate according to market pricing is around 4.33% at the time of writing.
- 4 analysts explicitly say they expect cuts in 2023 (down from 7).
For the full document, including summaries of 13 sellside analyst views see:
MNI BoE Sellside Update - 20220912.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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