MNI BoJ Preview - December 2023: Status Quo Across Policy Parameters

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Our analysis aligns with the prevailing consensus, which once again foresees the BoJ keeping all key targets and YCC parameters unchanged.
• Despite previous surprises in July and October, coupled with December last year, indications suggest a different outcome this time. The likelihood of the BoJ terminating its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) without prior adjustments to forward guidance appears low. Ending NIRP, the first step toward a rate hike in 17 years, would necessitate a substantial overhaul of the existing policy framework.
• We anticipate that any revisions to forward guidance would likely coincide with the publication of an Outlook Report.
• Ultimately, a shift from the current strong easing bias to a tightening bias should be necessary before the BoJ considers rate hikes.
• Our expectation remains that the BoJ will raise its policy rate by 10 basis points (ending NIRP) in April. However, this week's MPM is pivotal if an earlier exit from NIRP in January 2024 is under consideration.
• Full preview here:

BOJ Review - Dec 2023.pdf