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MNI BoJ Review – March 2024: End Of An Era

BOJ

Executive Summary

  • At its March 19 MPM, the BoJ made the significant decision to terminate its negative interest rate policy (NIRP), marking the first interest rate increase since 2007.
  • Simultaneously, it announced the cessation of yield curve control (YCC) and its overshooting commitment, along with halting purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs). These policy adjustments were largely in line with previous media reports.
  • The BoJ made slight adjustments to its economic assessment while largely maintaining the context outlined in the January Outlook Report.
  • Looking ahead, the future trajectory of the BoJ's policy interest rate is uncertain.
  • Therefore, it is likely that the BoJ will require substantial evidence of sustained 2% inflation before considering further rate hikes.
  • The Bank's April outlook report, which provides updated economic forecasts by Bank staff, may offer additional insights into its future policy rate decisions. Additionally, more information on wage increases from small and medium-sized enterprises, which employ 70% of the workforce, will become available.
  • Full review here.
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