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MNI BoK Preview-Jan 2025: 25bps Cut Aimed At Local Confidence

The BoK is likely to extend its easing cycle by cutting the policy rate by 25bps tomorrow.
Asia Bank - PreviewBank of Korea - PreviewAPACAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewSouth KoreaStory

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
 

  • The BoK is likely to cut interest rates a further 25bps at tomorrow's policy meeting, which take the policy rate to 2.75%. This is our firm bias and the sell-side economic consensus.  
  • The slump in domestic economic confidence following December political turmoil adds to downside economic risks. The economy was already softer prior to these outcomes, with the unemployment rate spiking late last year and jobs growth slowing.
  • Financial stability concerns around FX/house prices/debt are unlikely to be strong enough to offset these headwinds.  

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BoK Preview - Jan 2025 .pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
 

  • The BoK is likely to cut interest rates a further 25bps at tomorrow's policy meeting, which take the policy rate to 2.75%. This is our firm bias and the sell-side economic consensus.  
  • The slump in domestic economic confidence following December political turmoil adds to downside economic risks. The economy was already softer prior to these outcomes, with the unemployment rate spiking late last year and jobs growth slowing.
  • Financial stability concerns around FX/house prices/debt are unlikely to be strong enough to offset these headwinds.  

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BoK Preview - Jan 2025 .pdf