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MNI BoK Preview - November 2022: 25bps Hike Likely

BOK
  • The broad consensus is for the BoK to hike by 25bps at tomorrow’s policy meeting, which is the final one for 2022. This would take the policy rate to 3.25%.
  • A downshift from last month’s 50bps hike pace appears warranted on several fronts. Monetary Policy has already been tightened considerably since the middle of last year. Growth risks are intensifying, with external demand weakening and domestic confidence measures softening. The won has also recovered in the FX space, while recent stresses in domestic credit markets may also play into BoK thinking.
  • Strong inflation pressures argue for a continued aggressive pace, but are unlikely to be enough of an offset to the factors outlined above. Other focus points will be the terminal rate point. Some sell-side analysts feel we are getting closer to this point or may be there after further tightening on Thursday. The BoK will also update its forecast profile, with most interest in the 2023 growth and inflation projections.
  • Click here to view the full preview:
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